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Bitcoin Megabull Cycle - Starts in Less than 24 Hours

已更新

Note: The chart after publishing narrowed done the annotations. Press "+" to zoom in and see the chart as it meant to be seen.

Here is my update on the current impending Bitcoin Megabull Cycle. Annotations are on chart!

The breakout day as I pointed a month ago is on December 7-8, the fractal I have been using is on par with that thinking. If you have been following me on twitter, I have pointed that the fractal last mini handle we currently are in is close to completion and the current Bitcoin market overlaps beautifully with the blue bars of the fractal. Please set a stop loss at the 1D Bollinger Band Midband currently at 5260cny or $745 USD in case this trade fails for any reason

From there we will be able to continue our journey way higher as we head to the "moon". Once we hit $1,137 USD (previous ATH), Bitcoin will exponentially rally higher due to increased media coverage and more interest / hype that will bring new money in to the market. We are already seeing Bitcoin adoption in several worldwide countries: Venezuela, Africa, India due to failing fiat economies due to inflation and other issues.

It is very important to know as a trader that based on the 235 Days Bitcoin cycle, Bitcoin will reach the final ATH / Top on February 16 2017 (so make sure you sell Bitcoin and close your longs on or few days prior)

Potential ATH Targets are:
$2,661 USD
$4,200 USD
$5,276 USD
$8,720 USD
$14,000 USD

The final ATH target on February 16 2017 depends on how steep (slope) the uptrend is**
** I will re-evaluate the chart and targets during the megabull and provide an update on a possible final target

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交易進行

交易結束：達到停損點

After 36 days of consolidation Bitcoin has failed to rally following 5 consecutive green daily candles in a row. With the 12H 6H Bollinger Bands squeezing the big move instead was to the downside.

It is unclear yet if Bitcoin will:

(1) Need more consolidation at these levels before resuming the rally towards a new ATH
or
(2) A bearish outcome will be at hand with a retest of 630s initially and eventually lower.

That said, lets observe the action of the market in the incoming days before jumping to a final conclusion.

交易進行

I am marking this trade back as active as the action in the last 12 hours has been extremely positive and shows that the Bitcoin Market is maturing and in need of few more days of consolidation above 5250cny or $750 preferably before making the big move towards the megabull and a new ATH:

1. Chinese charts had formed a descending triangle on the low timeframes which broke to the upside 10 hours ago
2. All charts show that were in an ascending triangle:

3. Bitfinex and Stamp made new yearly highs. We are just pending China's move above the 5500cny resistance

4. Typically in a Bitcoin Bull market (especially the megabull), we tend to stay overbought on the 1D and 1W and 1M timeframes for long periods (several weeks). Hence why the 1D momentum indicator has shown constant buying (green bars) since October 2016 (see chart)

註釋

It is happening, break out finally above 5500CNY!

註釋

Watching closely this low volume break out on all exchanges as 4 days ago we had a fake out then a stop hunt forex style. The ascending triangle here seems to be resolving to the upside as expected. I would say lets give it few more hours:

I will follow up then with an another update of the megabull fractal with narrowed targets.

註釋

I am liking the volume here following the leg we had few hours earlier, I opened a long as well. Since we are two weeks late in starting the megabull I do not believe we will see an insane ATH. But rather I am predicting the first 2,661 to 2,700 USD area to be hit from my initial list

註釋

Quick update!

交易結束：達到停損點

Well seems bull run ended pre-maturely due to the chinese freaking out on freshly introduced CNYUSD valuation.

I closed all longs from 4 weeks ago once the neckline broke as seen on my screenshot below, just like we did on previous bull runs from several months ago. You all know I do not take chances, when the neckline breaks always sell (unless it was a quick down).

That said, the fractal was spot on until the news came out. Lets let the market consolidate for several weeks and look for our next long term trade / big move.

Tips: 1ATtiXKhie2WHpTgz6qs6TDrjBnA9kgtME

註釋

Today news broke out from China in regards to China’s PBOC Inquiries into China’s BTCC, OKcoin, and Huobi Exchanges and urging these to "operate strictly in accordance of laws and regulations of China. We have urged [the exchanges] to conduct self-examination based on related laws and correct, if any possible irregularities".

It is obvious that these exchanges were all aware of this announcement by PBOC several days before the public did while the megabull or bull-run was ongoing and close to the ATH (as the fractal was spot on). Of course insiders trading on these exchanges are targeted by the release and aware of that news, hence they orchestrated the brutal sell off of Bitcoin from $1165 down to $860 USD (and on top of margin calls galore)

Today's news put an end at the megabull cycle and instead Bitcoin will start moving in a different way with a sign of little maturity during bullruns. I mean that megabull 2012, 2013 could become a thing of the past. That said, Bitcoin is still in a set of several ascending triangles (as long as they hold) and seeing newer ATH is still possible before end of 2017 of course after a long consolidation.

On that note, I believe all exchanges must be regulated (exchanges and not Bitcoin itself), and PBOC calling these exchanges to regulate themselves is simply not going to happen. You need a body to oversee and audit them unfortunately.

Finally, I will let the market consolidate and publish a chart with a bullish long term view as the short term might be turning bearish to potentially long consolidations. Any visit under $750 might start a new bear cycle unfortunately and under $680-660 a confirmed bear cycle begins.

PBOC Translatation of the Announcement:

The recent Bitcoin Price is highly volatile. To prevent risks and uphold financial stability, PBOC Shanghai and Financial Office of Shanghai have jointly met the major heads of BTCC to know the current status of Bitcoin trading. We have reminded BTCC the possible risks and require it operate strictly in accordance of laws and regulations of China. We have urged BTCC to conduct self-examination based on related laws and correct, if any, possible irregularities.

In accordance of Joint Notice if Bitcoin risk prevention by people’s bank of China, Ministry of Industry and information, China Securities Regulatory Commission China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Insurance Regulatory Commission, Bitcoin is a specific virtual goods. It is not law-based and compulsory like currency thus does not have the legal status as a currency. It shall not, should not be circulated as a currency in the market. Individuals and agencies should properly treat virtual goods and virtual currency. They should invest with rationale, bear the possible risks by their own, uphold their own assets and have a correct understanding and concept of currency.

註釋

#Bitcoin Potential Next #Megabull Cycle: Many of you have asked me, I found the time to chart. Were looking at July-August 2017