I am a macro Bitcoin bear

2023年12月2日

Let me explain it to you in a different technical way. I'm trying to show you a clear change in behavior.

You've probably seen hundreds of different comparisons of this uptrend to previous cycles. I bet you haven't seen this that much.

Soon you will see headlines like "Bitcoin broke 40k! When ATH?" You have your fundamental reasons too. But read the chart again. It might tell you a different story.

2023年12月3日

註釋

My target is not zero or anything. I'm just saying see the change in behavior. For the very long-term, I have a crazy target. Inception of Binance. 3k. But of course there will be many stops before that. And opportunities to make money both way.

2023年12月3日

註釋

This "test 1.618 extension and continue" thing is a surprisingly common thing. Let me show what it has to do to invalidate my bearish thesis about this run for example.

If it can't do this and starts to distribute around here, you know that it's over.

2023年12月3日

註釋

If it does invalidate it like this, I will be vocally bullish btw. I'm a chart guy. Everything else has a very good potential to be a trap. Charts tell you the true story if you read them well. Halving, ETF I don't care. Zero care. Its value is speculative by nature. So only the chart can tell you the truth.

2023年12月4日

註釋

500k, "The new monetary order":

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-04/bitcoin-btc-hype-machine-goes-into-overdrive-as-token-surges-past-42-000?srnd=economics-v2&leadSource=uverify wall

Just because it breaks 40k? Ser mi familia...

Look there is a bullish scenario where it makes a new ATH and goes into multi year bear market. But this shit has to stop for that to be a possibility. The new monetary order...

2023年12月4日

註釋

Whales are not aware of this new monetary order.

lookintobitcoin.com/charts/addresses-greater-than-1000-btc/

2023年12月9日

註釋

OR it is not a correction but a new ATH to make EVERYONE believe it is the next world reserve currency. If it is we are stupid as fuck. This is the first time I've been leaning towards this idea since the start of this rally. I've always thought 40s would be good enough. Now chart tells me maybe it's not. But there is still room to prove me wrong.

2023年12月9日

註釋

The bullish argument about this chart is that this is an S curve. I don't see the base. If that were the case, I would want to see a big base. Somewhere really low. Maybe below 10k. Maybe around 3k. Where the really big guys accumulate while you think it's dead.

That didn't happen. Instead it's acting like an angry bubble again. But the rally is just different. It's not hard to see.

2023年12月9日

註釋

You can say this is just how you feel about this chart. And yes it is. But at least I know that the tech is not that great as you think. I know that Satoshi paper was a bullshit. You may still see him as a prophet. But it is proven that he was not infallable. He was wrong about multiple aspects of Bitcoin.

2023年12月9日

註釋

If this was the chart for example, my thought process would be vastly different. This is what real bullishness looks like. It's not about the numbers but the shape. You know this if you've seen enough charts.