52,838 and 06 cents: BTC most likely Retrace Target almost here

已更新

Update to my ongoing analysis of this bull run.

Correction proceeding exactly per plans.
We are nearing some key levels to watch.
The bottom should be pretty close to here.

$ 56,265 - 56,799 is the minimum expected.
$ 52,838 - 53,659 is best Guess and Ideal target.
$ 48,090 - 48,750 is the Overshoot (backboard).

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Previous plots and logic that lead us here (click the links):
- 73k Top Call no one expected
- Retrace Roadmap of Support zones
- 52.8k imagined but not believed
- Impulse Redux confirms the targets

註釋

Here we are, at the "Minimum Target" zone of 56.8xx

Zoom in (m1)

Red 4.236 at 56,799.10 is the major fib of this support zone,
and our expected minimum target of the correction as a whole.

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Probably too optimistic to think this is the bottom, but lets see.

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註釋

Follow up to last snapshot looking for a bounce:

We got a nice bounce, right up to the sister fib,
who thought it a game of catch and threw it back,
so we are trying again but that rejection was ugly.

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So there is still a chance we have "the" bottom,
but bulls must break and retest the red 3.618,
to have any hopes of painting a bottom here.

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註釋

Bottom in ??

"Minimum Target" zone has held overnight with a little bounce.

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Zoom in (m5)

We got a decent spike after FOMC news,
from our target 4.236 to it sister 3.618,
only to be entirely retraced right away.

Zoom in more (m1)

We see Pings on the local (blue fibs).
So we can look for a move to next one.
Given the climb of this wave, down is likely.

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SUMMARY:
- Odds of bottom have increased .
- Newly established resistance above.
- Watching 59488 above, 57876 below.

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註釋

Follow up to last snapshot looking for fib to fib move:

that's exactly what we got,
a perfect Ping on sister 3.236,
albeit after an attempt South.

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Zoom OUT a bit (m15)

We are trying the local spike from FOMC,
break+retest would add to "bottom in" odds.

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註釋

( Ping )

Why 59,284 and 59 cents?

Because it is a Ripple of our wave from the top:

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59,284 rejection is DOUBLE bad news for bulls:

1) the 3.618 is a minor ratio, so it should not be that tough

2) a 3.618 rejection points to 5.236 at $52,777

And that 5.236

is one Reason for our "Best Guess",
in confluence with Golden Genesis,
and top of zone made by local fib.

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SUMMARY:
- Bounced from where expected (4.236)
- Hit an apparently strong hurdle (3.618)
- Fall from here could drop 2 rungs (5.236)
- "Best Guess" target just got closer (52.8k)

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註釋

Bull Alert: We have a BREACH

The unusually strong 3.618 has been breached

That was a scary resistance, for the reasons listed in previous update.
Trapped between the 3.618 and a local fib, bulls were being suffocated,
and at risk of rejecting to new lows close to our "Best Guess" at 52.8k.
However, this breach + retest has surely reduced the odds of new lows.

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Looking above:

We have more serious resistance nearby,
a Major Ratio of local fib (2.618 at 60,484)
+ Semi-Major of Major fib (3.236 at 80,820)

ie: Much stronger than the one we just left.

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SUMMARY:
- Scary resistance 3.618 (not known) has been breached.
- Next one is known strong, so if pulls back not so scary
- Odds to 52.8k have decreased because of the breach.

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註釋

Bear's last chance?

Follow up to last snap shot looing at 60,820 resistance

Broken, retested and ran up to our next major hurdle, the 2.618 at 63.3k

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Zoom back out to our original plot

Red 2.618 will be tough, 2.618's always are.
So we can expect a pullback here from 63,306,
key support will be Genesis fib (blue) at 61,256.

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SUMMARY:
- Bounce is at a critical level (for bears).
- New lows will be very hard to get if 63.3k breaks.
- This is probably bears' last chance to seek 528k
- Bulls need to defend Genesis fib at 61,256 if hit.

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註釋

Another bull Alert:

2.618 has been breached, and perhaps bear's last hopes dashed.

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Zoom in (m15)

Red 2.618 sure tried to contain it.
Expect a retest before continuation.
Next hurdle is Genesis fib at 65,255

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Zoom in more (m1) and adding blue stripe fib to last push up

Perfect 4.236 wave,
perfect 1.618 retrace,
probably ready to go up.

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SUMMARY:
- Bulls have breached several key barriers.
- Bears are in desperate need of a pullback.
- Next milestone is the Genesis fib at $65,255

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註釋

Bulls still holding the high ground

Held above the red 2.618 for a couple of days,
but no progress yet towards the red 2.236.

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Zoom in (m21)

Looking at the wave down from 64.8k,
bulls are back to the "Impulse Core",
where we an expect max selling power.

Here is that fib in isolation:

It looks like the 64.8k bears are unable to defend the Impulse.

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Zoom OUT a bit (m34) and looking above:

We have three MAJOR hurdles just above:
1) 64,842.76 a minor ratio of fib from top
2) 65,255.26 a semi-major Genesis fib
3) 65,897.25 a Golden Covid stimulus fib

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SUMMARY:
- Bulls are approaching a major cluster of fibs
- The zone from 68.4 to 65.9 will be key to the trend
- Expect a pullback soon, from one of those 3 fibs.

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註釋

The massive resistance (per last update) stopped the bounce

Zoom in (m15)

Significant drop on Friday,
bounced on a Covid fib,
now fighting a Genesis fib.

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Zoom in more (m5)

3 fibs sets are in play in this window,
most important is the Genesis fib at 61,256,
next importance is the fib from top at 68,020.

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Zoom out (1h) and a possible EW plot of bounce:

Bounce was a clear 5-part impulsive wave,
which should be followed by a 3-part retrace,
which may have one more leg down to finish.

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SUMMARY:
- Bounce ended exactly where expected.
- Retrace thus far looks to be corrective.
- Expecting one more dip to finish the ABC.

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註釋

Spectacular bounce today!
Here were the Updates as Posted in chat:

Zoom on a bounce early in day:

Exactly rhythmic, a good way to SUSTAIN a wave, let see if it continues.

That was waaaay down there

SUSTAIN it did for the entire day thereafter.

That exact same fib series, switched from "Linear" to "Golden" series ends up with this

Perfectly in sync even after a 55x wave growth!

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So this little wiggle

times 54.486 in one day, put us here

and 46.971 times our impulse gives this result

46.971 = 1.618^7

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Adding that fib set to our existing sets

we have a confluence of 3 fibs from diff tf's that should form a pretty strong support

the level Boss however is the Genesis fib at 65,255.26

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SUMMARY:
- Pretty safe to say "Bottom is In" (at 56.8k)
- Currently sitting on a decent support.
- Bulls can allow a dip to 65,256 but must hold that.

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