Volume makes it tricky. Watch out for a possible dump.

2021年4月17日

We have declining volume and some bearish hints.

Unless volume picks up + Bitcoin manages to breakout/reject the wedge the odds for a sensible correction will grow, day by day.

Keep an eye on support, don't take more risk on a confirmed breadown.
Be vigilant in case of price moving down to the 50-55k danger zone.
Have a SL.

2021年4月18日

註釋

Straight down into the danger zone.
We just saw a > 10.000$ swing down to 51.000$, all this within about 24hrs.



Now bouncing.
Watch out, that's hardly over.

2021年4月20日

註釋

Awaiting breakout of the 1H triangle.



Bounce or slump.

2021年4月22日

註釋

Usual futures expiration volatility.
Let's wait and see the dust settle.

2021年4月22日

註釋

Nothing new so far.



Bears keep in control under 57k.

2021年4月23日

註釋

Danger zone pierced, we're in troublesome waters.

That said 1H hints a bounce looming.



Be aware of risks: that's like catching a fallling knife.
No warranty.

2021年4月23日

註釋

The whole picture, as per opening post:



Today close matters.

2021年4月23日

註釋

Bouncing.
look at close tonight.



IF it can manage to place a close over 50k and paint a hammer may bounce further.

2021年4月23日

註釋

Meanwhile on TF 1H:


Playing nice, let's see how far it can keep with the arrow.
If it manages to touch resistance it may try to confirm that falling wedge, eventually.

2021年4月23日

註釋

As usual, be careful.
Here you're playing with fire.

2021年4月26日

註釋

Bit late, but bounce ongoing after TD count=9.



Fair enough.

2021年4月27日

註釋

Testing top of danger zone.

2021年4月27日

註釋

Still not out of the woods, so far.

2021年4月27日

註釋

Vertex of rising wedge.
Watch it, as if the pattern gets confirmed a dip towards 51k area may happen.

2021年4月29日

註釋

Here we go.



Let's see, i would welcome an inverted H&S.
Soon to say.

2021年4月30日

註釋

Looks a inverted H&S indeed.

Small right shoulder ( did not pierce 52k), but at neckline already:



We'll see.
Hopefully it will achieve a pullback to previous support, now resistance.

2021年4月30日

註釋

Have a trailing stop.

2021年5月10日

註釋

Pullback ongoing, close to 60k mark but failing to nail the critical 62k area.

All we have is some uninteresting price action on low volume.



We have a rising wedge, so watch out.

For now we have to wait for some volume to kick in in order to make any meaningful evaluation. No hurry.

2021年5月12日

註釋

Pullback to wedge support (now resistance) and down again.



Ugly.

2021年5月12日

註釋

Let's consider bad and worst (dashed) scenario, for a moment.



Whatever will happen, that's enough to use some caution if you're Long ....
Watch out.

2021年5月12日

註釋

Anything below the light blue support on close would call for trouble.

2021年5月13日

註釋

Guess what ?



;)

2021年5月15日

註釋

Watch it carefully. Whole scenario:



Ongoing critical test of MM20/W.

2021年5月16日

註釋

Chart update, some lines removed for clarity.



It may find support on the fuchsia line and bounce.
Otherwise down to target box ( see post above )

2021年5月17日

註釋

First 30% correction of year achieved ( close price computation ).
Historically buying 30% correction for long term holding is rewarding.

See below: red bars are BUYs on 30% corrections.
Blue bars are monthly buys (e.g. accumulation plan ).



Historically (from 2010 onwards) red chart outperforms blue chart.
Nowadays by about 100%.

Meaning that buyng the dips usually outperforms accumulation.
That's why i always buy this kind of dip, even repeatedly, without caring about the ongoing weakening.

2021年5月19日

註釋

No bounce, straight to target box.
Very impulsive move, no buying pressure so far.



This spells for trouble unless we can get a bounce by weekly close.