Bitcoin: Semi-HODL winner with MA 150 and RSI 14

已更新

There are supporters of determined HODL, which really only benefits the early adopters.
Because buying late, for example 2 years ago, that is to say end of 2017, and selling nothing in 2018-2019, is already better than 90% of traders, certainly. But it is hardly better as a result of a classic passbook, the risks and stress in addition.

On the contrary (even if it is possible to be part of both profiles simultaneously), there are traders. If you have a little seniority, you know that the border with the gambling (like casino players) is often thin and that less than 10% of traders don't finally liquidate their wallet. Especially with an asset as volatile as Bitcoin.!

Also, I propose here what seems to be a happy medium: the SEMI-HODL.
From only two indicators on long-term scale (therefore logarithmic for visibility):
the MA 150 moving average and the RSI 14. In all simplicity, rigor and efficiency.

This method tells me that the best entries to HODL must be made by a massive buy when RSI 14 <30.
Historically on Bitcoin, it was therefore January 10, 2015 and December 15, 2018 (see my related ideas).

Then, it is important to take profits (TP) gradually every time the RSI 14 exceeds 80.
This represented 4 TPs on the previous bullrun near the top of each parable. To be repeated at the next bullrun.

Attention: if you have not yet released all these profits, according to my method must imperatively sell your BTC remaining when RSI 14 goes under 50! On the previous Bitcoin bubble, this represented a final sale (if not already done) at the end of January 2018 when BTC = about $ 10,000 (still in x40 since the Best Buy, 3 years earlier).

評論

If you followed my publications from the end of 2018 (see related ideas below), you have invested on the 2nd BEST BUY (named Ultimate Dip) and if you have since been like me in HODL, you are still today more than x3 (or in any case case again with a positive balance if you made some mistakes in not having the patience / strength of really HODL ALL 2019, which is my case).

Note that the peak of Bitcoin at almost $ 14,000 mid-June 2019 did not pass the RSI 14 above 80. There was therefore no need according to my methodology that SEMI-HODLERs savvy already take a first profit (not yet TP1).
However, I had TP this top at $ 13750 in one of my associated ideas below, for scalping by redeeming lower. But this is only optional optimization, and dangerous if the underlying technical analysis is not solid.

評論

From now on, as long as the RSI14 does not pass under the 50 mark, we are in HODL of our BEST BUY 2. Moreover with regard to the RSI 14, it is particularly interesting to note that the double summit sub-80 that I circled in yellow on May-June 2019 looks like the double summit of October-December 2015, also circled in yellow, then signing only the start of the Bullrun 2015-2017! Still a good reason for HODL our BTC purchased between $ 3200-4000 and take profits (TP1,2,3 ...) only when the RSI 14 will cross the bar of 80 and / or sell everything when RSI 14 will go back under 50!

評論

I hope that my dual long-term indicator methodology (purchases under MA 150 become resistance + RSI14 oversold / sales according to index RSI14 with MA 150 as support) will be useful for you to be part of SEMI-HODLERs of Bitcoin insiders and winners. In which case don't hesitate to activate the follow-up and gratify this idea of a blue thumb!

DISCLAIMER: Invest only what you can afford to lose. You are solely responsible for your investments.

評論

WHAT ACTION TO TAKE ON BITCOIN THIS END OF YEAR 2019?

During the bullrun of 2016 and 2017, the RSI 14 came to rely every time (4x) on the bullish support that I traced to the value of 52-53 to resume its bull cycle after a parabolic correction.

This is something I have always found very interesting to watch.
For example today, the parabolic correction in progress has brought the RSI out of overheating to bring it back to a value of 57-58 on August 26th.

Conclusion: with my methodology, it must be deduced that the price could still correct until the value of RSI 14 rebound on the support of ~50. A particularly interesting data to watch for who would be in the search phase of an optimized positioning for HODL BTC (the latecomers who have not already buy on my alerts of December 2018, too bad but it is not too late, or simply those who want to supplement their investment with a complementary refill).

評論

This is of course no longer a situation as ideal as that of the BEST BUY presented: the future gains will be less important and the risk greater.

Indeed, if the RSI dive quickly below the 50 with a continuation of the bearish retracement (a priori implausible but not impossible), those who bought near the area of BEST BUY (BTC <$ 4000) will still come out with very interesting gains, while those who have fallen on the RSI14 = 50 hoping for a rebound will have to sell at a loss as soon as they see that RSI14 <50.

But by rigorously following my methodology, they will then certainly buy more BTC than sold, when RSI 14 will be oversold <= 30. Because SEMI-HODL that I propose, it is a happy medium between the discipline of the trader pro and the patience of the HODL pure and hard.

評論

Also, like all Bitcoin-Maximalist, we should not reason that in valuation in dollars, but also in valuation in Bitcoin (Satoshis). Succeeding in increasing its BTC stock even with a temporary loss in dollars is part of the discipline I have imposed on myself for over two years.

This of course implies being in line with the fundamentals of Bitcoin and its nature of store of value (SoV), which is in my opinion its main use case making all the difference with the thousands of altcoins in perdition.

I think you will only be able to do quality SEMI-HODL if you are BITCOIN-MAXIMALIST. Otherwise, you will be too quickly overwhelmed by doubt, by your emotions. And so purchases / sales of BTC that will be led by the FUD and the FOMO, and no longer by the signals of the RSI 14 and the EMA 150 in respect of my methodology (or your own methodology if you want to adapt it to other indicators, for example).

I therefore recall with this commentary that fundamental analysis is essential even before you are interested in technical analysis in a second time.

評論

Update: RSI 14 in my configuration approaches the strategic value of 53 !

I am considering the bearish breakup of what currently appears to be a descending triangle with continuation of the decline started at the peak of almost $ 14,000.

Then, one of my favorite scenarios, because already met twice during the bullrun of 2017, would be a rebound on this target which otherwise would be a bullish rebound on the MA 150!

This could therefore be a falling wedge pattern with a strong bullish reversal signal with a target height of ~14000 $.

Here is the representation of this possibility: