We can really never predict what will happen we can only have a strategy or plan in place to respond if our plan works out.
BTC fell exactly at a critical Fib ext level of the swing from the high 11th July (7846 ) to the Swing low of 12 Sept (5428).
Price unravelled from this retracement of 100% & 50% of the previous swing from 2927 to (7846) - bulls were waiting.
The price action tells me a few things. That traders are watching these levels and the next levels are becoming critical for an overdue retracement.
As well as this once price rises 166% price will retrace by 50% - this is very common in other markets.
27 June price was 1095 by the 15 Aug it had risen 167% to 2978.
Then price retraced to the 50% fib level of that swing. Then the bears saw price to deeper extension level 0.382. A new high of 4971 -2 Sept was made.
Price then retraced to a 50% level to see the low 3026 - 15 Sept before making another high 7941 (a 1.618) price extension of the swing low at 893 (25.3.17) to the swing high (4843).
This tells us a story. Each of these levels are approximately 168% apart.
If we look at the last 3 levels where price terminated, retraced to 50% then made a higher high we can see role reversal. Price makes a ceiling falls then breaks through then retests.
I am now expecting price to rise 166% from the last 'role reversal' level (7490) tested on the 8.11 then retested on the 21.11 and almost again on the 24.11 before rising again.
If I take the price tool and extend it from this critical level I can see BTC reaching 20400 - before correcting to the 50% retracement level as it has done 3 times in the past- this would e 14215 approx.
Projecting a fib from the swing high to the swing low I can see that the next safe buy in level is 12770 once price reaches 20600.
I am also looking at the 7822 level for a retest of the role reversal and have set a limit order in the event that this happens. (swing high made on the 9.11.)
20600-700 is the 3.618 of the previous swing or wave. 19303 is a critical level to watch as it is the 4.2365 of the swing from 440 to 4893.
BTC fell exactly at a critical Fib ext level of the swing from the high 11th July (7846 ) to the Swing low of 12 Sept (5428).
Price unravelled from this retracement of 100% & 50% of the previous swing from 2927 to (7846) - bulls were waiting.
The price action tells me a few things. That traders are watching these levels and the next levels are becoming critical for an overdue retracement.
As well as this once price rises 166% price will retrace by 50% - this is very common in other markets.
27 June price was 1095 by the 15 Aug it had risen 167% to 2978.
Then price retraced to the 50% fib level of that swing. Then the bears saw price to deeper extension level 0.382. A new high of 4971 -2 Sept was made.
Price then retraced to a 50% level to see the low 3026 - 15 Sept before making another high 7941 (a 1.618) price extension of the swing low at 893 (25.3.17) to the swing high (4843).
This tells us a story. Each of these levels are approximately 168% apart.
If we look at the last 3 levels where price terminated, retraced to 50% then made a higher high we can see role reversal. Price makes a ceiling falls then breaks through then retests.
I am now expecting price to rise 166% from the last 'role reversal' level (7490) tested on the 8.11 then retested on the 21.11 and almost again on the 24.11 before rising again.
If I take the price tool and extend it from this critical level I can see BTC reaching 20400 - before correcting to the 50% retracement level as it has done 3 times in the past- this would e 14215 approx.
Projecting a fib from the swing high to the swing low I can see that the next safe buy in level is 12770 once price reaches 20600.
I am also looking at the 7822 level for a retest of the role reversal and have set a limit order in the event that this happens. (swing high made on the 9.11.)
20600-700 is the 3.618 of the previous swing or wave. 19303 is a critical level to watch as it is the 4.2365 of the swing from 440 to 4893.
評論:
Correction - 1st swing high created on the 11 Nov at 7850ish -indicated by the green line.