Bitcoin: longerterm blurbz now I have a PRO a/c ;-)

2015年3月7日

I think the rise from 13jan2015(150s) is corrective, but also think the fall from nov2013(1160s) is corrective to the longer term trend in BTC.

The daily(LHS chart) seems to suggest the rise from 13jan2015(150s) was a ABC correction. Looking at the 1/BTCUSD chart gave me a better perspective on this as I couldn't arrive at this conclusion by simply looking at the vanilla view. I think we've probly not hit a top for the C wave, as we've not had a very dramatic crash yet. This, or the alternate count(RHS): a 5 wave decline has already ended(or is about to) and we're off to the moon ;-)

DanV's count: seems to make sense, but I don't like how much larger his waveC is compared to A and B.

I'm a big fan of this count by Ronald_Bringer: but his wave 1 seems to have retraced too much, and wave 5 is larger than 3(but that is not unusual). However, as you can see from my RHS charts here, I have begun wave 1 from jan2014(990s) as I believe the rise from midDec2013(370s) to jan2014 was a wave-5 failure and not really a correction of the downtrend to jan2015(thus far).

I'd personally expect the alternate count(RHS) to play out because it covers a longer timeframe and because I'm "invested" in BTC(time, effort etc.) for the long run. I don't think we're in that bubble many naysayers are heralding. BTC is solid tech, and even though the value doesn't need to be high for the money transfer mechanism to work, for larger volume transactions it will have to be: or perhaps it will always remain a niche? Either way, current levels are just way too low IMHO, even for a niche market with the acceptance it has gained to date.