This message is for swing/long term traders, not day traders which have no overnight holdings.
So let me start by saying that people are calling bitcoin a bubble since the beginning of bitcoin but is it? Is bitcoin a bubble?
And if it is, how long will this bubble go on?
Obviously nobody can look into the future. Sure, there are whales who manipulate the markets and can therefore to some extent know what's going to happen in the future but they aren't gods.
So lets look at the question if bitcoin is a bubble first.
The first question we should answer is; What are the criteria for a bubble?
Lets use Mr. Shiller’s checklist (expert on economic bubbles)
1) Sharp increases in the price of an asset like real estate or dot-com shares
2) Great public excitement about said increases
3) An accompanying media frenzy
4) Stories of people earning a lot of money, causing envy among people who aren’t
5) Growing interest in the asset class among the general public
6) “New era” theories to justify unprecedented price increases (this means that people believe the allegedly bubble their involved in, is not a bubble because it's nothing like any of the previous bubbles. They have multiple reasons for this belief)
7) A decline in lending standards
Well you don't have to be a rocket scientist to conclude bitcoin DOES meet al these criteria.
So if bitcoin is a bubble? How big can it get?
Well, that's the million dollar question right. Unfortunately I don't have the answer and I can only guess. Technical analyses, the thing i do, is not very accurate in projecting long term prices (My own opinion).
Bitcoin could go to 100k this year but I do believe that this correction will last a little bit longer. We could potentially see prices between 8000 to 9000 dollar or in worst case scenario prices between 5000 to 6000 dollar.
If you read my trading idea from yesterday you can discover why I believe so. The we're looking at right now makes me believe the same thing.
As you can see bitcoin is trading within a channel and it didn't have the power to breakout to the upside. I do believe that bitcoin can test the top of the channel with prices between 13.500 and 15.000 before it goes down again.
In an ideal case bitcoin will test the 8000 dollar before it will start trending up. Why?
Because then we had a very nice/long correction and that's very healthy. In that case we can assume that the selling pressure that was building up has been properly released.
Please like my ideas if you agree! If i get enough likes i will be publishing more.