BTCUSD (1W) LOG: Why is it right to buy Bitcoins? Update.

2018年12月27日

Five questions that everyone should ask themselves, regardless of whether you are a day trader or a long-term investor:

• How likely is it that BTC will fall to USD 2?
  
• How likely is it that BTC will fall to USD 200?
  
• How likely is it that BTC will fall to USD 2,000?
  
• How likely is it that BTC will rise to USD 20,000?
  
• How likely is it that BTC will rise to USD 200,000?
  

I have asked myself these questions over and over again. Here are my simple answers and more thoughts. I am looking forward to the discussion with you. By the way, this chart is an adaptation of my last long-term chart. Just a few corrections due to the current market situation. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/DKgeS8Y1-BTCUSD-1W-LOG-Why-is-it-right-to-buy-and-hold-Bitcoins/

Now to my answers:

• 2 USD - Okay, then BTC is dead. Will BTC go dead? Clearly NO. Why? Please read the many articles on the web about the possibilities of BTC as an independent value store and payment instrument. Simply googling.
  
• 200 USD - See 2 USD. :-)
  
• 2.000 USD - Here it gets more interesting. Should BTC fall to 2,000 and no further. So do not go dead, the question is: Where does it go then? Back to 4,000 USD or more. It will be a huge bounce. Where we can earn money. It doesn't matter to the one who starts today and holds on for the long term, because BTC will be back at 4,000 USD and will then continue to rise.
  
• 20,000 USD - This question is also interesting. When BTC reaches USD 20,000 again, what comes next, the death. See 2 USD. :-) So BTC continues to rise. Short question. Would you buy today if you knew that BTC will reach 20,000 USD in the next few months or two years? I do. And hold. Shortly I collect BTC. :-)
  
• 200,000 USD - And what about 200,000 USD. So if BTC can rise again to 20,000 USD, BTC can also rise to 200,000 USD. Or? Why not? And frankly. 100.000 USD is also enough. ;-)
  

How everyone deals with these questions, everyone must themselves know. I am currently invested in BTC. My motto: It's not about making a lot of money with trading, it's about how much you are willing to lose to make a lot of money with trading.

Back to trading and away from philosophy ... :-)

The key question is, have we already seen the highest price at 20,000 USD? Many agrees: No, that was still the highest price. So what is the highest limit that the Bitcoin will approach at some point? Look at the Halvings... The 1st Halving was in November 2012. After that the price increased extremely. Likewise it was so with the 2nd Halving in the middle of September 2016. Then the rally starts up to the current ATM of 20,000 USD. Let's take this fact as a basis. Then a target of over USD 150,000 could be possible after the 3rd halving in May 2020. My analysis is based on a logeritmic chart and the trendlines are also adjusted to the logeritmic course as elypses.

Here the close-up view:




Let's see what happens. Happy trading. :-)

2019年1月2日

註釋

look at the stoch rsi. interesting situation! trend reversal?

2019年1月6日

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update ...

2019年1月6日

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2019年1月18日

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still on track.

2019年1月31日

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support line reached.

2019年4月24日

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update for swing-trader.