Stop Drawing Lines - One Channel To Rule Them All

2021年4月14日

I've spent probably over 300 hours in the last couple months digesting technical analysis on BTC. Whether it's Bulkowski patterns, price harmonics, divergence, simple support/resistance, fibonacci targets - it all ends up being wishy washy, inconsistent, and difficult to actually do anything with.

Recently, I randomly decided to draw Bitcoin in a channel - a consistent demand line and a consistent supply line for the entire bull market. I considered the first big pumps and retracements as the most noteworthy - the first parabolic run up and major correction down.

I drew out the slope from that peak to the next peak and found a 3rd touch at the first micro-run of the bull market.

I copied that same slope and set it below on 3 touches.

Then, I drew the channel and added quarter-heart-lines to get a better look at some intra-channel resistance.

I'm done drawing lines on this chart. Until we break this channel, this is all I'll be basing my decisions on. I will buy or hold in the lower quarter channel, take inferences from the price behavior in the 2 middle channels and trade the volatility, and certainly unload parts of my position in the top quarter channel.

I'm nobody, and I'm inexperienced. However, I've listened to a lot of experienced somebodys this year and last - and they all sound a bit obtuse.

This chart makes sense to me, maybe it will to you too. Hope it helps.

Oh, also, we are currently backtesting the top of the lower quarter channel as support after breaking it as resistance for the first time in nearly a month. Exciting times.