Bitcoin Bottom - May/June 2019?

2019年2月21日

The question on everyone's mind is where and when will Bitcoin bottom. With this analysis I wanted to look at both price and time.

The first thing we can see is that Bitcoin has been respecting (closing above on a weekly scale) a trendline from the $63 low in July 2013. This trend line was tested and respected again at $152 Jan 2015 (previous bear market bottom), and $198 August 2015.

If the 200 week MA does indeed breakdown (~$3200), where will Bitcoin find support and possibly bottom? If we look at this trendline, we can see that it intersects with a key level in Bitcoin's price history at the $1850-$1900 level in late May-early June. In the summer of 2017 during the heated scaling debate Bitcoin crashed from $3000 and found support at $1800 after it was confirmed that Segwit would be added to the protocol. This is a key level in Bitcoin's history.

Now if we look at time - using the Fibonnaci time zone analysis we see that Bitcoin bottoms between the 1.5-1.618 time zones. If we take the swing lows and swing highs on a macro level we see that during the previous bear market in 2015, Bitcoin bottomed right between the 1.5 and 1.618. Now if we look at the current environment, the 1.5-1.618 time zone places us May and September 2019. These date are very interesting because it also intersects with Bitcoin's historic trendline.

I'll end this analysis with my personal prediction. I think that Bitcoin will ultimately bottom around $1500 and close the week at around $1900. The $1350 level is the only level that has never been fully retested, but I do think it will get front run since there is a lot of money waiting on the sidelines for lower prices.

Bear market low: $1500
Bear market low on weekly close: $1900

Thanks and best of luck!