Lagging indicators like MACD and RSI are helpful for historical analysis and confirming larger timeframe trends, but are only a tiny piece of the puzzle. Links below for my perfect L1, H2, L2 and H3 calls. My study of this pattern scenario has been since Nov 2017, so Let's analyze:
What are we looking for? Simple: Any drop below $10.5k will be a downside continuation of this large wedge pattern, and sub $4k will be a fatal and final bubble pop. I am very bullish Bitcoin, but why max out funds on a failing H3? Patience for L3 to form and make a decision is a much better and safer play. If we were going bull from H3, the market wouldn't have re-entered the large wedge pattern and continually fall out of wedges. However, a "W" recovery at the ~$4k mark can take us into the next bullrun.
- New lower H3 fell out of blue rising wedge and orange long term trend
- Trends at H1/H2/H3 RSI are at the same levels (bottom)
- Immediate drop after weekly MACD deathcross (circled in yellow)
- H1 & H2 RSI declines until hitting bottom at L1 & L2
- 42d increments between H1/H2/H3 and MACD deathcross (42dx2 on H2)
- H3 bull trap with 50% the volume/MACD of H2 and 25% of H1
- H3 now in purple rising wedge
- H1/H2 and L1/L2 rely on ~$6k mark for support/resistance before continuation
- DeFi mirrors 2017 craze (all about moon gains, no real-world use case)
- Sept rolling into October consistently leads a down month across the board since 2017
What are we looking for? Simple: Any drop below $10.5k will be a downside continuation of this large wedge pattern, and sub $4k will be a fatal and final bubble pop. I am very bullish Bitcoin, but why max out funds on a failing H3? Patience for L3 to form and make a decision is a much better and safer play. If we were going bull from H3, the market wouldn't have re-entered the large wedge pattern and continually fall out of wedges. However, a "W" recovery at the ~$4k mark can take us into the next bullrun.
