Time is up! Bitcoin forced to break up- or downtrend soon

2018年2月28日

Even though Bitcoin -0.65% broke through the long-term bear trendline (in pink), it failed to do so decisevly. The beartrend is extra stubborn because it coincides with the 50 day moving average (white trend line ).

Within 3 days, the long term bear trend and the more recent uptrend (in green) collide, and one of the trends will have to be broken.

Bull Scenario

If the bulls win, bitcoin -0.65% will face its first challenge around the 11.200 level (white line). Judging from the weak breakthrough of the trendline , we can expect at least an initial reversal from this resistance before it manages to break through.
The second challenge will be a major resistance around 12.800 (dark purple line), which is the 50 percent fib retracement level from the recent all-time high. We should expect a strong reversal (perhaps multiples) before breaking this level.

Bear Scenario

If the bears win, bitcoin -0.65% can hope for support back at the recent support level of 9350 (light pink line). Once we break through here, we are back fully in bear territory, and we should prepare for another big downswing.

2018年3月5日

註釋

So, the downward trendline has been broken, and the Bulls won!

However, my resistance level prediction was a bit off: Bitcoin has found resistance at 11.500 rather than 11.200.

Still, I think we are likely to continue our upward trend to the next big resistance level, which still stands at 12.800. If we can break this, the road is clear for a big run up. If Bitcoin gets rejected hard, we should wait and see if Bitcoin can find support at 11.500 again.