I am merely cutting & pasting a discussion I posted on the Predictive Analysis/Forecasting Room (tradingview.com/chat/ As a student of the market, I have to preface here that I have my own methodology, and that I have relied on my own model to define particular R/S and reversal levels.
However, what I am putting forth here is a simpler way to define a potential S/R or reversal level using a Fibonacci forecast level from a higher timeframe, and then returning to the smaller timeframe of interest, and catch the S/R or reversal-based swing trade using the amplitude that is offered from the higher timeframe.
In this example, I used the 0.618-Fib from the DAILY and returned to the H4 chart where it is clearly shown.
I then used the T.S. Hennessy wave count methodology, as outlined within the chart, and define that area of reversal with some satisfactory accuracy.
What then ensued was to simply use the SMALLEST Fibonacci reversal value (i.e.: 0.382) to catch a counter-trend opportunity.
The chart will clearly demonstrate that this is exactly what this method would have allowed you to do by merely calibrating your trade first at the DAILY for a likely 0.618 price reaction, and then down to the H4 for a definable limit to that price reaction.
Whether price decides to go further down or not is really irrelevant in this simple strategy.
As I post this, please give me time to cut/paste the recent discussion I posted regarding more specifics about the occult geometries I employ within my own, albeit more complex, methodology.
I hope that you will appreciate this methodology for its simplicity and for its ability to open your mind's eyes to other, alternate and quite simpler way of trading. I am a passionate student of the market, and my background, which I offer in the discussion, will help clarify the sort of mind bending processing that may go into trading.
If you are interested, then I suggest that you turn to your next level of trading complexity by learning from the likes of Constance Brown for more complex and occult geometries, from Ashraf Laidi for a global understanding of Inter-Market Analysis. And if you liked this method or the material I am offering here, feel free to share around. Please, leave credit where credit is due.