First off all, I'd like to state that I am not at all hating cryptos or denying the potential of the blockchain. But in my personal opinion, what happens to Bitcoin right now is nothing else than ridiculous. The more I am reading about "Financial Bubbles", the more I have to draw the conclusion that Bitcoin may very well be exactly that.
So, before everybody starts stoning me and declaring me "an idiot who doesn't understand anything about bitcoin" (Which already happened more than once and, by the way, is one of the classic signs of a bubble. More about that later), please consider the following:
First: Simply take a look at this classic bubble pattern and tell me honestly that the bitcoin chart above does look nothing like that: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2012/Feb/Bubble-Phases-7.png Under the premise that we really are in a bubble, then we defnitly would be in the public phase, most likely in greed or even delusion.
Furthermore: Today I was doing some research on the classic signs of a bubble on fundamental basis and stumbled about this article: http://www.businessinsider.de/4-signs-of-a-financial-bubble-2017-7?r=US&IR=T Well, we got 4 points to check here, so let's get started. 1) It may be my personal environment but at the moment it's not possible for me to go for a drink with friends or coworkers without Bitcoin beeing the subject of the whole table sooner or later. Even though nobody is involved yet or has any idea what the word "Blockchain" even means. Nevertheless most of them think about throwing a few thousand bucks in there. 2) Although I don't know anyone who really quit his job yet, I sure see a lot of people writing about quitting or "getting out the system". (Many are going full conspiracist out there. Another thing I don't get.) 3) Sounds familiar? This is what I already mentioned above. As I've been reading discussions on Facebook, Reddit or other "social" networks, I noticed two phenomenons: a) I've someone critiques Bitcoin, about 90% of the people just laugh at him/her or make fun of his/her (often eligable) doubts. People seem to forget that Bitcoin is still a high risk investment and not their ticket to a beach house on Hawaai. b) Good news (like the Amazon rumors lately) are accepted without further questions, while any bad news or critic is "fake" or "propaganda" against Bitcoin started by the evil and stupid bankers from Wall Street who just don't have any clue and are simply afraid of BTC. 4) Oh hell, yes. At this point, I'm not going to do anything more than to quote John McAffee: "Bitcoin will reach 500,000$ in 3 years." To reach that price, Bitcoin would need the same market cap as the US$. Doesn't sound that likely to me.
So, this is just my opinion on Bitcoin at the moment. Feel free to let me know your thoughts about this topic. Maybe I'm wrong and everything is just my very personal environment creating this impression. By the way, I sure as hell won't short Bitcoin, as I have no idea at which time the bubble will burst if there is one. To some part I'm actually hoping that I am wrong because if there is a bubble, it inevitebly will burst and crush the whole life of many people who are fully invested at this point.
P.S.: Some weeks ago, one of the genius traders around here, DianKemala, posted a similar article and it may be more relevant now. I added the idea as it may be even more accurate at this point.
評論
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As someone pointed this out in the comments, I may need to clarify one thing: If I'm talking of a bubble, I think of it as a long overdue and hard correction that gets amplified by a highly emotional market and lots of "dumb money" circulating.
After all the things I wrote above are just my thoughts on a lazy saturday afternoon and I wanted to discuss them with other people.
I certainly wouldn't "make fun" of you, although I feel differently about the subject. What do you mean with a bubble? Something that's going to crash to zero and with no underlying value? Or do you mean a market that is currently overbought and is in line for a major correction? If you mean the second one then I agree (and the key word is currently). Your bubble-phases link seem to sugest the second one too. Also for any fair comparison you would need to turn on "log scale" for the chart above.. not linear.
HFBN
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@Enjo, thanks for your feedback. I'm glad you mentioned that there may be a misunderstanding regarding the definition of a bubble. I going to add a comment up there to clarify this subject. If I'm talking of a bubble, I think of it as a long overdue correction that gets amplified by a highly emotional market and lots of "dumb money" circulating. Bitcoin surely won't disappear into worthlessness. But it may be critically overbought and correct pretty, pretty hard so people getting into the market right now for the first time will lose big time. Furthermore, I'm going to keep your statement on the log scale in mind for the next time. Unforunately it's too late to change that now.
PhillipPt
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No doubt is an bubble, you only need to get out before is Pop's...
Eric_Lenson
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@HFBN I could sit here and continue to feed into many mindless comments below, however I have decided to hold back and comment pertaining to your analysis only. I want to start by saying thank you for being one who sees the picture of what is happening from both sides.Playing a little devils advocate is always useful for better understanding and making better decisions. If you are trading based on one sided opinions you will get crushed. Simple as that. With that being said, I do agree bitcoin is in fact in bubble territory, but not the type that would put it anywhere below $1000 or even $2000. At this moment there is way too much exuberance in the market which is a recipe for a crash, but once again I think it will be more of a large scale correction rather than a CRASH. A few people also mentioned that this "bubble" is different from the rest and this is where I actually do agree with them. The reason for this is over hundreds of years of markets/finance/currencies/assets, there has never been anything as revolutionary as blockchain. Since so many people, intelligent or not, have a hard time grasping the concept of blockchain and cryptocurrencies, I have a difficult time believing that we can accurately define a true value of something so new like this. So in the end, yes I agree that these charts, trader psychology, and people in denial all point in more of a bubbly direction, but will it be as catastrophic as you are depicting it to be....doubtful.
HFBN
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@Eric_Lenson, thank you for your positive feedback. I didn't realize I was painting such a drastic picture. Maybe you noticed that I avoided to make any prediction about the price a crash or a hard correction would lead us to. The reason is that I have absolutely no idea where it would stop and I doubt anyone can predict this right now. Maybe this "bubble" is in fact different. This is another thing I don't dare to make a statement about. Especially because we tend to overestimate the potential of a new technology (I recommend you to take a look at the "Hype Cicle": en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle). Blockchain is a technology with high potential, no doubt, but Bitcoin and Blockchain are not the same thing. Long story short, we agree on the current situation and time will tell, if it turns out as a hard correction or a fully grown crash.
mark.obradley
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Completely agree. It is a bubble. Anyone ever wonder why Bitcoin was hovering around $300 for years befor 2016 and 2017? The only reason it went up was China and Brexit. Millions of people were trying to stash their money somewhere. Also the reason a few other bubbles inflated, such as real estate. Just as you said the kool-aid drinkers are coming out of everywhere claiming anyone against their "precious" is an "idiot that knows nothing". If Bitcoin was a stock for a company, it does not have a valuable product. No one is buying it to send money or spend bitcoin for products. Everyone is just buying it to get rich quick. You might as well buy penny stocks then. I can name dozens of existing companies, other blockchains and definitely future digital currency that will do a better job than Bitcoin. Even on Bitcoin's open source repository it states "this is an EXPERIMENT" lol
mark.obradley
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@Mark.obradley, 2) If Bitcoin is so rock solid then why all the soft and hard forks making clones of itself. More get rich quick schemes by sole developers. Why should bitcash or any other split of Bitcoin be worth anything? That is as bad as fiat money printing. Every split should be reducing Bitcoin's value by half minimum.
So... buy the panics; wait a little while... then sell into strength. Repeat.