Entertaining various parabolic scenarios when this one stood out to me.
First the setup
In bitcoin's past, parabolic corrections usually land within the 0.5 to 0.786 area, most commonly around the 0.618 level. First off we map the parabolic curve – tested many times over throughout this bull run indicated by red arrows. Next we draw fibs from the 2015 low to an estimated target of 15k.
So why 15k?
While recently we tested the parabolic trend line, and broke it up to 11.4k, the parabolic blow off and correction hasn't been as extreme as previous parabolic blow offs. Sentiment is still mixed and this final run up didn't get super vertical. I'd like to see something like a very strong 3 white soldiers candles in the lead up to a more extreme blow off top. So why 15k? If we fib out from the 2015 low to 15k, the fibs match nicely to some recent key price movements (see below):
What Next
Having hit the top of the parabola curve, we should correct to the bottom of the curve, approximately 7,600 price range providing the fuel required to propel us into a parabolic blow off at 15k followed by a 0.618 correction taking us around 5,850 (although we could go as low as 3,400 area).
Bit of a tinfoil hat idea, long stretch, but I don't think we've seen a top in the macro sense just yet.
First the setup
In bitcoin's past, parabolic corrections usually land within the 0.5 to 0.786 area, most commonly around the 0.618 level. First off we map the parabolic curve – tested many times over throughout this bull run indicated by red arrows. Next we draw fibs from the 2015 low to an estimated target of 15k.
So why 15k?
While recently we tested the parabolic trend line, and broke it up to 11.4k, the parabolic blow off and correction hasn't been as extreme as previous parabolic blow offs. Sentiment is still mixed and this final run up didn't get super vertical. I'd like to see something like a very strong 3 white soldiers candles in the lead up to a more extreme blow off top. So why 15k? If we fib out from the 2015 low to 15k, the fibs match nicely to some recent key price movements (see below):
What Next
Having hit the top of the parabola curve, we should correct to the bottom of the curve, approximately 7,600 price range providing the fuel required to propel us into a parabolic blow off at 15k followed by a 0.618 correction taking us around 5,850 (although we could go as low as 3,400 area).
Bit of a tinfoil hat idea, long stretch, but I don't think we've seen a top in the macro sense just yet.
評論:
Well we hit 15k.
評論:
Wow, so here we are 3 months since my last update and what a ride it's been! I had all but forgotten about this chart.
Because we overshot the parabolic move to the upside hitting 20k, I've adjusted the fibs in the chart below:
Currently we've hit our first target fib of 61% at approximately 7.4k. Analysing historical macro corrections, the low could potentially land anywhere between the 61% and 78% fib lines, so we still may have some downside anywhere down to 4.2k.
Because we overshot the parabolic move to the upside hitting 20k, I've adjusted the fibs in the chart below:
Currently we've hit our first target fib of 61% at approximately 7.4k. Analysing historical macro corrections, the low could potentially land anywhere between the 61% and 78% fib lines, so we still may have some downside anywhere down to 4.2k.