Bitcoin: 50K Fake Out, 44K Support.

2021年8月29日

The 50K resistance level continues to HOLD. How many times have you bought "THE BREAKOUT" only to be caught in this consolidation? If you recognized the RISK and probability of this location (something the "gurus" don't talk about), perhaps your reactive decision making would not get you into these HOPE mode situations.

The 50K AREA was a major support before it was taken out months ago. For that reason, there are going to be LOTS of longs who are happy to exit for a small loss or break even in this area. That phenomenon makes this a tough level to clear unless there is a very powerful catalyst which usually no one sees coming. Do you remember when Bitcoin was testing 30K, looking like it was about to break lower for weeks and OUT OF NOW WHERE, Amazon announces they are going to accept Bitcoin for payment? That catalyst was the start of the current bullish structure. Meanwhile before that event, MOST "experts" were calling for shorts.

Stop listening to people, and start listening to price. The risk to the long side around 50K is very HIGH. This is not something that is obvious or that you can see on a chart. The EASIEST way to navigate this situation is to look for bullish reversals around HIGH probability locations, which are SUPPORT levels on the SAME time frame.

44K, 41K, 37K and 35K are the locations, all you have to do is WAIT. Most people don't want to wait because they still struggle with fear. If you focus on the money, you will be bullied by fear and as a result, REACT to irrelevant information like everyone else who partakes in the herd mentality.

If Bitcoin manages to break above 50K, and the move is going to be substantive, often there are continuation patterns whether its a swing trade or a day trade. So the fear of missing out is just an irrational emotional state that MARKETERS LOVE to capitalize on.

Know the type of trade you are looking for before you take a trade. If you are new, you should not day trade, which leaves swing and position trades as your choices. If you are going to take the bullish break out for a move above 50K, it is a viable strategy BUT requires a TON of attention, and proper risk management. Waiting for a support requires much less effort, and offers better reward/risk.

In case you don't know, all markets are HIGHLY RANDOM. Anyone that is "calling" for a price, like 100K or 30K or whatever are either trying to sell something, fooling themselves or both. If anyone knew anything, why were they all calling for shorts at 28.5? This random component can also work to a marketers advantage, which is why ANYONE can be a "guru" in this game.

To improve your decision making, begin by focusing on price structure, levels, anticipating and RISK management. This game is 95% mental. Charts best serve as a reference point to manage risk, that's it.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.