Are we repeating the May 2018 drama again?

2018年7月24日

For a bearish scenario:

• Charts are showing the same pattern
  
• RSI is very high
  
• ETF decision is delayed in September
  
• The outcome of the last Congress hearing on cryptos is worst then the previous one
  
• The article mentioning insiders saying that it is almost certain that ETF will be approved are unknown or even not anymore part of the decision circle
  
• (an unreliable but a fun one) CNBC Fast Money show is bullish (track record shows there are mostly wrong)
  

For a bullish scenario:

• The up trend is strong
  
• Volumes are still very strong
  
• No real resistance level until 9,500$

2018年7月26日

註釋

2018年7月26日

交易進行

Here on XBTEUR (BTC/EUR) but applicable to BTCUSD

2018年7月27日

交易結束：達到停損點

With the Pump we just had I can only turn bullish now

2018年7月28日

交易進行

2018年7月28日

註釋

Are we repeating the May 2018 drama, the 2014 one or not?

This is the chart of BTCUSD in 2014 at time similar than today


Here is the outcome


Now let's look at nowadays


Are you still 100% bullish now?

2018年7月28日

註釋

What are my thoughts on the short term right now? I honestly don't know.

I would not be surprised if we test the 9500$ level again but I am pretty sure that the bear market is not over.

Technical part:
- Volumes are very low
- We are still below the Ichimocu cloud
- The daily RSI is high
- When a bubble pops we live different stages including fear, capitulation are despair. I don't feel people despaired yet. There is still a bullish sentiment out there. Simply look at what happened when rumors of a possible ETF was published. Bitcoin took 40% in a few days. That does not look like people capitulated or are despaired.

News part:
- Another ETF Bitcoin got rejected by SEC for - and not only for - volatility of Bitcoin
- The outcome of the last US congress hearing was worst than the previous one. Maybe they start understanding that if Bitcoin is used as a mean of payment the power of the US Dollar and a big economy tool of the USA is at risk

Technology part : which makes me extremely bullish on the very long term
- Lightning network is extremely prommissing
- BIP174 open the doors to the mass market
- etc.

2018年7月28日

註釋

2018年7月28日

註釋

2018年8月1日

註釋

2018年8月8日

註釋

Next target 5,850$