BTC Cycles & News Correlation

2022年4月25日

There's a reason behind every pump and every dump, it's our job to find out why.

My previous post talked about BTC cycles turning bullish over the past few months and I thought this new chart would be a good supplement.

The chart should help find a correlation between major crypto/global news events and the major turning points for Bitcoin's 60-day cycles.

Bullish news will be displayed in the green notes and bearish news will be red.

Each cycle has a major bullish event that causes FOMO among investors and a major bearish event that sparks FUD.

Humans are emotional beings. If you can learn about psychology and group behavior, you will begin to predict these major trend shifts.

A famous quote from Harold Rosenberg that I enjoy is "Intellectuals are a herd of independent minds."

The market for a crypto asset, which operates 24/7, is simply a massive group of people around the world determining value.

If you can identify when the emotional intensity of the market is getting too enthusiastic, you will be able to find temporary cycle tops.

If you can identify when the emotional intensity of the market is getting too fearful, you will be able to find temporary cycle bottoms.

It is really that simple! Over time market participants like us will become better at it and the asset will become less volatile.

Bitcoin will not become a currency over night, it will take years and years of these cycles on different timeframes to establish value.

Right now with all the geopolitical fears and interest rate hikes, it is understandable why markets are fearful and mostly on the sidelines.

Quiet times are the best times to take action in the markets, you don't want to be making decisions when the herd is stampeding.