We had a clean but low volume breakout last night (such is a Friday night breakout session). This followed weeks of re-accumulation by industry that left us ranging between 10% down to 5% in an ascending triangle.
On breakout, BTC peaked just under the ATH around 61.2k before entering a falling wedge. It appears primed to retest some key support levels but if sellers are there, they aren't very aggressive. Industry, miners and whales are not selling, and waiting to see how it retests.
Whats Next: If this pattern continues, I am targeting the intersection at the top of the ~45 day value range and .618 fib for the bottom of the wedge and a spring to breakout North. We need to see this pattern continue down the wedge with declining volume/volatility as an additional confirmation. Potential long target starting around mid to low 59k. This will likely be invalidated if we fall below 58.9k and I would look for a deeper correction. But If we post a clean bounce around 59-59.5k, I expect volume to rise quickly with traders expecting a breakout. TP targets probably start between 62k and 623k. If this pattern continues into the coming weeks, my target for next top is ~72-75k.
Other Indicators:
On breakout, BTC peaked just under the ATH around 61.2k before entering a falling wedge. It appears primed to retest some key support levels but if sellers are there, they aren't very aggressive. Industry, miners and whales are not selling, and waiting to see how it retests.
Whats Next: If this pattern continues, I am targeting the intersection at the top of the ~45 day value range and .618 fib for the bottom of the wedge and a spring to breakout North. We need to see this pattern continue down the wedge with declining volume/volatility as an additional confirmation. Potential long target starting around mid to low 59k. This will likely be invalidated if we fall below 58.9k and I would look for a deeper correction. But If we post a clean bounce around 59-59.5k, I expect volume to rise quickly with traders expecting a breakout. TP targets probably start between 62k and 623k. If this pattern continues into the coming weeks, my target for next top is ~72-75k.
Other Indicators:
- Bullish: Whale Ratio: whales are hodling
- Bullish: MPI: miners are hodling
- Bullish: Exchange Inflow: looks healthy
- Neutral: Pi indicator is 70 USD from crossing. This one is on a lot of folks radars. If the two DMAs cross its a potential signal of the cycle top. But this cycle is different for many reasons so as a lone indicator, I don't see this as a high confidence indicator. Looking at other big industry players, miners, etc. everyone seems to think we have a lot more runway. That said, we could be overdue for a strong correction after this local top is reached.
註釋
Note: this could breakout earlier. If you see a high volume candle breakout of the wedge in either direction, thats a strong trade signal that you could enter, but keep a tight stoploss. If its a low volume test of of the pattern (say a wick out) I wouldn't take it.註釋
註釋
Keeping an eye on the 382 FIB as a potential early bottom of the wedge.註釋
Update. Approaching two possible entry targets for longs.. 
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