BTCUSD: Bullish Retrace Likely Off Of Key Support.

2018年8月7日

BTCUSD update: Ugly price action has probed the 6850 area only to find some support so far. There are numerous technical reasons for this support to hold but I will cover two. What makes this formation more challenging to buy is the nature of the wave count.

The current bearish price structure appears to be Wave C of a corrective formation. The formation can be considered a Wave 2 correction since price has decisively taken out the 7450 level. Wave 2s can correct 100% of Wave 1 and the broader impulse can still be intact.

Typically Wave 2s retrace back to a deeper support like the .618 area which happens to be where this market is at the moment (not on chart for sake of simplicity).

This support along with the bullish trend line just below are just two structural arguments for an increased chance of reversal. Price action may be tricky, but it's more about the probability of the location than about single candle formations.

I published an article earlier on S.C. that covers more detail as far as the current area in play. We bought more inventory around the mid 7Ks along with some swing trades in the alts. We are simply letting probability play out. If we are wrong, we get stopped out.

In summary, as ugly as price continues to look, the location remains very attractive. As long as the broader structure presents a formation of strength, buying into weakness aligns with best practices. The key is to look forward and let probability do its job. If the market continues to sell off, we have our risks defined so we know where we stand either way.

As I wrote in my report earlier, the market changes fast, but is always right. Our job is to determine probabilities, define risk and adjust to new information. That is the essence speculating in any financial market.

Getting wrapped up in drama, oscillators, or news events are the signature of the herd mentality. One of the first steps to separating yourself from the herd and recognizing the market's intent is to minimize these ineffective behaviors.