Possible BTC movement on weekly

2022年1月30日

I noticed on the weekly chart for BTCUSD what looks like the left shoulder and head of a head and shoulder pattern with only the right shoulder left to form.
If we place a Fibonacci retracement from July 20, 2020 to the the ATH a retracement to the 0.618 level brings us down to the 32k area which is our neckline and where we recently started a bounce.
I believe this retracement could go as high as 55k-60k area before turning and dropping in price.
If we placing a fib retracement from the ATH to the current neckline, I see a potential retracement up to the 0.618 level which puts us at the 55k-60k price range where BTC would run into a resistance level, At which point the price drop begins and as I see it there are two possible outcomes.

1. We break the 30k support level and fall to 20kish and start to consolidate.
Or
2. With the little support at the 20k level I think it is possible that the price breaks below this level and could fall until it is around the 10-12k price range where things will cool off and consolidation will start.

Do you agree or disagree with me?
What do you see if you disagree?
Am I really a know nothing noob?

Forgive my know nothing ignorance.