Be aware of the FOMO bitcoin train

Dear people of crypto,

Since we started a rise again i see the 100k hype getting bigger and bigger again.
The usual youtube suspects start raving about 100k+ targets, TV gets flushed with charts that show straight up lines to the moon, bitcoin gains some media coverage.
But when i look at the chart all i see is a bump on the lonegr way down.....

We almost touched the top range max line that converges with the shorter term trend line touching the highs.
But as soon as we zoom out we see that doesn't mean much.
So my best guess is we are still on track to make a new lower low between 20k and 17.5k.
The 20k as a long term support from the previous market cycle high, the 17.5k as a 50% drop from the bottom line to indicate bear market bottom.

To be clear on this, ri don't do high risk shorter term trades to make 10 / 20 or even 30%.
I aim to buy around market cycle lows and sell around market cycle highs.
This again is no financial advise in any way, it is just how i see the market and how i am not impressed by this run up.
The break of 48.8k might invalidate this idea, but only if it is done with power and volume.