Bitcoin — Be Bullish But Patient

2024年9月27日

Bitcoin is starting to look quite bullish.

On lower time frames we have an uptrend. Higher highs and higher lows:

Also inverse head and shoulders. For my brain it's easier to see it on an upside-down chart:


On the higher time frame we're still in a consolidation though. It is important to be ready for more sideways movement and short-term swings. Or we can get a breakout in just a few days. Who knows?

69K is currently the most important resistance and, once broken, is likely to become a point of no return.

2024年9月27日

註釋

I want to add, October is always a green month in a bull run. But that doesn't mean that November is. Look at 2019 for an example. And since the previous major wave started in October, maybe it's not going to happen this time according to the rule of alternation. Just something to keep in mind. According to my study of the cycles (tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/uwZJ094n-Timeline-of-Bitcoin-cycles-and-where-we-are-now/), we should get a new ATH anytime between November and February. There is absolutely nothing that makes the following scenario impossible for example:

2024年10月2日

註釋

Another scenario that I posted earlier in another thread.

2024年10月2日

註釋

There is nothing wrong with staying out of Bitcoin until this correction is resolved by the way.

2024年10月2日

註釋

Or it can be something like this.

2024年10月5日

註釋

On the weekly timeframe we have a higher high and it's confirmed by a higher high and a trendline breakout in the RSI. It's possible that we're in a trend transition phase now which means that price action is in the process of creating a higher low.

2024年10月7日

註釋

Cup and Handle:

On the 2-week timeframe we have something interesting: first full candle body close above the support since July (the support zone comes from 2021 top monthly closing prices). RSI has held the support at 50 so far and Stochastic RSI looks ready for a cross up:

2024年10月10日

註釋

This can be a retracement before the next wave up and an attempt to find a new higher low. Bullish above 0.786 and especially bullish above 0.618 and 0.5.

2024年10月12日

註釋

Nice bounce from support after a 50% retracement and it looks really good right now.

2024年10月14日

註釋

Cup and handle breakout, target - 76K.

2024年10月14日

註釋

Weekly chart. Three candle bodies closed above support. Last time this happened was in June.

2024年10月25日

註釋

Trading near the critical resistance. Right now is the highest risk for bulls and the lowest risk for bears. All the bullish signs don't matter until we have a breakout.

2024年10月29日

註釋

Breakout. First target is 100K.

Many bullish altcoins are still near support. The last chance to buy is now.

2024年11月2日

註釋

Testing 69K and the upper line of the bull flag as support now. Looking good so far.

However, it must not crash back under 69K. Otherwise, it's a fake breakout and consequences may be devastating (worse if it just rejected from 69K and kept consolidating for longer).

2024年11月6日

註釋

I'm optimistic but there is no breakout unless the week closes above 74K.

Last week's candle was a bearish shooting star closing inside the bull flag and below 69K resistance. We now need a weekly close above it to invalidate that signal.

2024年11月11日

註釋

The week is closed, the shooting star is nullified and the bullish breakout is formally completed! This was a long correction, but it's finally finished. Past resistance turns into support and we can expect up to 12 months of growth.