If we haven't already topped, I think the upside is limited here. Price is currently at $71k and if we get a move higher, I think price would top out at $ 78k-$ 81k for this cycle.
I see a few different scenarios from here that can play out.
1. Price tests $ 48-52k from here, we rally quickly from there but then roll over and see new lows below where we went in 2022.
2. Price tests $ 48-52k from here, we rally quickly from there and we end up seeing a new high between $78k-81k. Then price falls after that to new lows below the 2022 low.
3. Price blows past the $ 81k resistance and we continue up (less likely in my opinion).
I think all risk markets are heading into a correction phase here and bitcoin won't escape the drawdown IMO.
I think this will end up being "a black swan" event.
Sharing this idea because most don't think this is even a possibility, but to me, it's my base case.
Cautious heading into the back half of the year.
I see a few different scenarios from here that can play out.
1. Price tests $ 48-52k from here, we rally quickly from there but then roll over and see new lows below where we went in 2022.
2. Price tests $ 48-52k from here, we rally quickly from there and we end up seeing a new high between $78k-81k. Then price falls after that to new lows below the 2022 low.
3. Price blows past the $ 81k resistance and we continue up (less likely in my opinion).
I think all risk markets are heading into a correction phase here and bitcoin won't escape the drawdown IMO.
I think this will end up being "a black swan" event.
Sharing this idea because most don't think this is even a possibility, but to me, it's my base case.
Cautious heading into the back half of the year.
註釋
Gotta be honest, leaning towards scenario 1 right now.The more and more I look at the chart on higher timeframes, the more I think we've topped for the cycle.
We're seeing a flat red heikin ashi 1M candle in July. Unless price can take out
65K by the end of the month, probability favors continuation to the downside. I think it's likely that we'll see a bounce after the bottom gets tagged, but I now think it's unlikely that we see new highs.
註釋
Welp 65K level broke, flat top red candle now negated. That leaves the possibility open for the $78k resistance to be hit.Note: I think the rest of the month will be choppy. I could see $67.8k tagged next before another move down either to retest $60k or maybe we even take out the low, then bounce.
I think you'll want to be long into August.
註釋
Alright got the bounce but I'm now I'm more cautious here. I think we could reject here between $65.7k - $67.8k. I have a hard time seeing price surpassing that region. Should we reject, it could setup a large move lower.註釋
And there's the rejection.註釋
Holding below $67.8k = more downside, flipping that region as support = upside.Simple as that.
Getting conflicting signals on LTFs but big picture, my bias remains that we see new lows (or at least retest of $60k) before any sustained bounce higher.
Got our first red heikin ashi candle today which to me means the downtrend is just starting.
I still think we'll get a flush into August and then a bounce into September.
Will update if anything changes.
註釋
Alright August flush incoming... you've been warned.註釋
The trigger would be a move up to $66.7k-67.8k and failure to break that region (like I mentioned before, this is the critical level), which would form a H&S top. Or a move below $62.5k.
Let's see how it all plays out.
註釋
Welp look out below...註釋
First target hit.
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