CRYPTO - Big Smackdown Then AltSeason ?

6月18日

The Crypto Cycle Gurus are telling us that AltSeason is just around the corner since the expected 4 year cycle completion is just a few months away...

But are they correct or is there a twist in the tale ?

Here's a 10 minute video to show a potential twist.

There might just be a DEEP dip buy opportunity coming down the road...

Not advice

6月18日

註釋

Here is yesterday's 50 minute video for more detail:

6月22日

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Right on cue; Bitcoin dumps to $98K and many altcoins have been suffering big losses through this area.

In case you're not familiar with my work, in May I stated on a previous thread that I was 100% out of the market.

And that worked out to be a perfect exit - selling altcoins at their tops.

That thread is linked to this thread in Related Publications.



I track a lot of setups, but this one was so contrarian that I decided it deserved to be shared here 👍.

6月23日

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This is a high time frame call, but in lower time frame Bitcoin has just bounced tidily from a 1:1 Golden Window (1+ overshoot up to 1.13)

So this potentially is a 3 wave correction completed:



The way I trade is that the lower time frame leads the higher time frame.

Although I currently think Bitcoin has a good chance to dump, a low time frame buy signal just appeared.

This may end up being a small / moderate bounce, but there is of course the possibility that Bitcoin can make a new high.

So I have taken profit on short positions such as FARTCOIN.

I showed my short entry in that in a previous thread and just closed a very pleasant 30%:



Now looking at longs - ETH has looked one of the strongest for some time.

It has little overhead resistance compared to other altcoins, had been signalling strength in printing a sideways channel while most altcoins were getting slammed...

And it has bounced with a bullish lower wick (arrow) from a 0.382 retracement. If you've done your Elliott Wave homework, you'll know that a 0.382 is a strong retracement should a pivot arrive which often occurs in an uptrend:



So it is a better choice than most other altcoins.

If you watched the video, I covered indexes that are more likely to top in higher liquidity above ATH.

And it may take them some time for them to get there and top out.

In that time Bitcoin / altcoins etc can be having a bullish phase; either a small bounce or something more significant.

- This is what I do; trade in the lower time frames and let the story develop without being too rigid.

I bought some BTC and ETH and may buy more over the next few days if the trend looks positive.

I won't be constantly updating the thread, but this is a bearish thread and so I wanted to make the point that there are potential low time frame signals developing.

I'll be looking to see if Bitcoin can hold this area as markets open tomorrow.

And we'll see if it does or not.

For now this is just an early signal and it may perhaps chop around over the next few days before a more decisive move.

In the end though I still favour the high time frame bearish case in tandem with a dump in stock indexes 👍.

6月23日

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But there might just be a significant bounce here...

6月23日

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ETH

Has some low time frame bullish divergence through this slump - so could be a more significant bounce coming 🧐.

6月23日

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Quite a nasty slump in the last hour and that impulsive action potentially signals that bearish impetus is taking over again.

I will be flat in this area - looking for dips as they arrive.

6月23日

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6月23日

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This snapshot and commentary were first shared via my private workflow—now syncing here for continuity:

"This looks like Bitcoin's favourite shakeout trick here.

And so our thesis gets swung back and forth, but that is the nature of the Bitcoin shakeout machine.

From here, this is now a significant downside shakeout.

And the size of the shakeout often signals the size of the following uptrend.

So this may have some pop.

I'm back in on both BTC and ETH longs here and will buy more if it pulls back.

Could be a shakeout of the shakeout coming, but considering the size of this downside shakeout, that is less likely I would suggest 👍.

"

Since then, Bitcoin has really pushed on. That further reinforces the idea that the downside shakeout was significant—and with three correction waves potentially complete, we could be looking at the next wave up.

That said, many altcoins and Bitcoin treasuries aren’t yet confirming the move.

Meanwhile, stock indexes look like they could be nearing a dump zone.

But Bitcoin? It loves dancing through danger—and the recent technicals remain very bullish. 👍

6月23日

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Here's an altcoin that I cover:

FET #49

Altcoins starting to look frothy and this may be a signal that the next wave up is on.

FET the top performing AI ripper; printing a strong day candle today.

It pulled back to 0.5.

It looked ugly but it could be that the correction is over.

I bought some here 👍.

6月25日

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Markets wobbling and I am profit taking in performance altcoins, as well as hedging into short position in the weak Bitcoin treasury; MARA as per this thread from yesterday.

Adding to my short today 👍.

6月26日

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Momentum waning and I'm shifting back to short positions in meme coins since tend to show more weakness in early bearish phases: FARTCOIN PONKE BONK WIF

6月27日

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TOTAL2 (BTC + BONK)

I've overlaid red BTC and yellow BONK on TOTAL2 chart (all altcoins) to show why I short weak coins and not the strongest coin - BTC.

Notice how Bitcoin is much stronger than TOTAL2 through this area.

But BONK diverged to the downside much sooner than TOTAL2 or BTC.

So in terms of profit; if you had shorted Bitcoin somewhere during TOTAL2 ascending line; then you would be somewhere around breakeven.

But BONK has been in a downtrend for a few days now and has been pleasantly profitable.

Buy strong assets. Short weak assets 👍.

6月27日

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Should be much more downside to come with these shorts since TOTAL is only just breaking from Distribution (topping pattern).



And so they potentially are still a reasonable entry.

But as you can see on the previous chart, the ideal time to enter these shorts is as you identify weakness in charts of dominance.

In this instance it was the ascending line that was a weak structure.

Anyhow - I have entered on shorter term signals, but there is possibility that this can develop into a longer term hold.

Whenever stock indexes start wobbling I will be looking to hold short positions.

6月27日

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Meme coins are dying off while Bitcoin wobbles. The aforementioned shorts going very well.

This capitulatory action in these high risk coins signal that the dominant trend for the market is to the downside, but stronger coins are lagging in this action.

6月28日

註釋

FARTCOIN

Has begun to make an upside move with other meme coins and I have swung back to begin buying stronger coins.

On this chart there was a long ascending trend channel; carrying bearish cause.

The channel broke to the downside and a 3 wave correction printed.

Now that an upside move is underway, it could be that the 3 wave correction completes the downside reaction to the bearish ascending channel.

And so it could be that parity has been restored.

This is early, so we'll see how it develops and see if there is any wobbles in stock indexes next week.

Remember that both major indexes; S&P and Nasdaq have made a new ATH and thus in higher liquidity - ripe for a slightly higher high Wyckoff failure swing.

This means that risk-on longs are fraught with danger.

And a stock index smackdown could quickly terminate bullish trends in crypto

But as I keep saying, this market loves to dance in danger.

And it is starting to signal that the next wave up may be underway 🤨

6月29日

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Meme coins starting to roar and my FARTCOIN (and other memes) buys are going very well.

FARTCOIN



PENGU



As Bitcoin pops to make a new high.



A few days ago I made this chart and the somewhat illustrative drawing has been accurate so far in that there has been a higher high:



Bitcoin loves this type of distributive move to draw in the longs before spitting them out again.

If this outcome does play out then we may see some roaring moves in altcoins (as we're seeing in meme coins now - memes tend to move first).

So for now I am long; but cautiously long, not going to the beach with no signal long a la hodler.

Remember that in terms of liquidity - stock indexes are in prime position for a big smackdown.

That said, some altcoins are forming a strong base which may signal a big move up at some point.

6月29日

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Next video: