Where the game will change

2018年2月14日

BTC got to the all expected 9.2K, previous low on bitfinex, with 0.236 Fibo on 9.4K, this is the point where all can change. It can change from bear to bull on timeframes above 4H and from bull to bear on timeframes lower than 4H. I have really no idea if is going bull or bear at this point so I just made an analysis for each point of view for the coming 2 days with both targets on chart for bulls and bears. Flipping a coin choose one side and put a very stop loss will make you have a very high risk return, and if you got a stop loss you can just invert your trade and still pickup the market. Or you can wait a little for a market decision, and take the bus while it is rolling, you might miss some profit on this case but you will also miss a bit of profit if you enter early and got a stop loss. If you are already on one side just wait and see.

I made the analysis based on two techniques together so it one confirms the other with Fibonacci levels and circles, targets on chart

2018年2月15日

註釋

BTC stopped on our 0.5 Fibo and 0.236 Circle Fib and a test from the upside of the 9.4K 9.2K levels are possible:

2018年2月15日

註釋

Check my new analysis for the 4H timeframe here or look into related ideas:

2018年2月16日

註釋

Some futures contracts have already expired but still some left:

getjumbucks.com/settlement/

So market sideways...

2018年2月16日

註釋

My deadline for 10.6K expired so I got a little bit paranoic to find the next move of BTCUSD by charting a very lot of fib circles that could make sense, look like a mess, but I hope one of this 3 paths is the right one:

2018年2月17日

註釋

BTC got squeezed and will probably run a bit sideways and return uptrend anytime:

2018年2月18日

註釋

BTC is heading to daily mean and that's also our target for now:

2018年2月18日

註釋

BTC got a little bit scared of the mean, so I thought two paths to 1H and 4H targets:

2018年2月18日

註釋

Still on the same foot, two possible paths, market going sideways to decide:

2018年2月19日

註釋

The daily mean is at 11.3K, hard to tell how the first hit will happen, some thoughts:

2018年2月20日

註釋

BTCUSD didn't swing any further before hitting the daily mean. Charts from some alts suggest this is the end of their cycle, but for BTCUSD things are far from clear, the only good hint is this return to the mean:

2018年2月20日

註釋

BTCUSD looks like it is reversing on our 11.5K res, it may swing a bit and go again for a second hit to the mean, it is usually the common behavior:

2018年2月20日

註釋

We got a very small swing and it looks all set to go straight to our target:

2018年2月21日

註釋

On preview comment I totality missed the Fibo 1.0 and it's pullback, now it is done already with a pullback to our support circle fib. Get ready now for +17% in just one day for BTCUSD:

2018年2月21日

註釋

BTC got a second hit in our support curve and things are a bit mixed. We should consider the probability of our target don't get reached too, with a possible bearish engulfing, we might get out of the market by our trailing stop, make sure your stops are moving close to price action:

2018年2月21日

註釋

Looks like finally the dip is done and this is the final breath of the bull run from 6K, and looks like our target has moved with the dynamics of the market and is now sitting a bit below the original:

2018年2月22日

註釋

I am back, things turn against me and my stop almost got reached but I am still on game and my inner circle fib is still valid despite it got hit on the lower 1.618 fib, now I think the next target is on the upper side of the same fib. I think bulls have a surprise for us but if market brake down my 1.618 fib I will take profit right there and turn myself bear:

2018年2月23日

註釋

Broke down, profits taken, market could potentially go to a second crash now but also just do wide swings and go up. Will wait a bit before taking new positions !

2018年2月23日

註釋

Market a bit tricky with my 1.618 circle support at 9.75K too close to the 9.67K line support, it is possible a bear trap is in place. I will need to reenter market again, but if 9.67K, the dash line just below the 1.618 circle fib, get broken, it is the end of this bull run, with market hitting 8.2K in just one day ! Need to monitor this fight with care, it is a very much important key point !