# Bitcoin Short Term Macro Analysis

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
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Well, it seems that we're going down. We're in a down channel moving past wave IV 0.5 retracement level where wave V attempted to start but failed miserably.
The last remaining logical point for wave V to start and revive the up trend is wave IV 0.618 retracement level. The point of no return.
There's a high probability that beyond this level we will only correct more, the up trend will be broken at 9000 where wave IV enters the territory of wave I. And our next target will be 6000 bottom.

We're in WXY structure because it consists of 3-3-3 waves, not 5-3-5 zigzag waves. It was established at 10250 where 1-2-3-4-5 count for possible wave A was invalidated.

Basically, W, Y are upper level container waves that can be any 3-wave structure or contain other nested container waves wxy, wxyxz within themselves. But they can not consist of 5 waves - that's reserved for A,C.
X is a failed trend impulse, a 3-wave zigzag structure. It's called "failed' because waves 4 and 5 fail to start/invalidate.
For example,
W = 3-3-3 wxy or 5-3-5 abc zigzag or 3-3-5 flat (it is possible for wave W to contain 5 subwaves of a zigzag indirectly, because zigzag has 3 waves)
X = 5-3-5 abc zigzag ,
Y = 3-3-3-3-3 wxyxz or 3-3-3-3-3 abcde triangle or 5-3-5-3-5 abcde wedge

A, C are 5-wave structures that can only contain other abc , not wxy. In certain cases A can consist of 3 waves (3-3-5 abc flat, 3-3-3-3-3 abcde triangle). C is always 5 waves.
B is a 3-wave zigzag correction. B can also contain abc , not wxy.

When C > 1.618 of A the correction becomes a trend 1-2-3.

Good Luck!

Please don't trade based on my analysis only. In certain extreme cases it may lead to bankruptcy and 2nd mortgage. I'm not responsible for your losses.
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