However, if you look at the chart, you see that Bitcoin was with a forming, but that changed into a . This is a large and requires looking at the to really see it. The tells us there is a high likelihood we'll see another large rally, equal in size to the last one.
The two light blue curves show the last small rally and the likely recurrence of that rally which will send us out the top of the to begin our new rally.
The rally should rise +235% which is equal in size (percentage) of the last rally we had starting on Nov 11th and ending on Dec 16th (34 days total).
You see that I draw a date and price range square with the total 34 days in the future and +235% in height. This gives us a projected dollar amount of $53915 as our target.
Keep in mind, that my targets are often off +/- a few days, sometimes a week or so. And the height of my targets come close, but do not always hit the top of the projections, so if you want to set some more closely estimated targets, I'd set them at 10-20% lower than my projections:
My projection for new All Time High ( ATH ): $53915
-10% target for ATH: $48500
-20% target for ATH: $43100
For a stop loss, I'd put the stop around: $12700 (bottom of the support cloud, see red dashed line for stop loss position)
After reaching our new ATH at $53,915, we will likely fall quickly back to the 61% line or about $31000
See notes in chart.. resistance of the Bitcoin is futile.
"We are the . Lower your shields and surrender your ships. We will add your biological and technological distinctiveness to our own. Your culture will adapt to service us. Resistance is futile."
You can't kill the Bitcoin.
Could buy now, or wait until cup is confirmed.
The dead bull will bounce.. and bounce hard to $50k!
The large triangle was broken downward. What does this mean? It means, our triangle is now a large yellow bullish flag, confirming my earlier target of $53,000.
I've updated the drawing to show the bullish flag in yellow. Triangle is still there, but faded away into the background. I've changed the angle of the green curve slightly, but nothing else has changed. We are ON TARGET!
If you move, you'll take losses. Everything has been down the last couple weeks, almost everything. NEO and a couple others may be the only coins that are making it through this drop. But you have to hold on if you want to see profits. Yeah it's great to see 10-20% per day or 200-300% per day and even 1000% in a week, but it is not the norm! We've been lucky to experience these huge increases in the past weeks and I think we will continue to be lucky, even after the losses.
A lot of people have lost a lot of money. I'm personally down over 50% of my entire portfolio and I was only able to save some of it today by moving to Neo (but I'm still holding positions in many different coins and holding them where they are, not selling.).
Selling will only lead to more panic and bigger sell offs. Don't give in to the panic, to the FUD.
Remember, don't invest anything more than you can afford to lose! And don't forget that if you are up a lot, you have a lot of FREE money that you entered into the market knowing you could lose anyway. Do not get emotional and upset about the losses (believe me, I've been feeling it the last 2-3 weeks myself). But I have been through this before and I can tell you that if you are strong, you make good decisions, you do your analysis and your own research while also looking to these charts and others (please compare my charts to others out there), you will come out ahead.
Let me tell you a story. I bought $10 worth of Bitcoin at the price of $660 in 2013. I bought one of these for each of my family members and I gave that Bitcoin to them on Christmas 2013. They have not touched their money in 4 years. This year, they had a balance of over $250 each. They simply forgot about their investment for a period of 4 years and they came out wildly ahead. The HODL is a real term, it's a real way to grow your investment. If you bought IBM stock 30 years ago and simply held it in the same way, you'd have a pretty nice nest egg.
Trading is a different story. It's higher risk and higher reward. If you are going to be trading, you have to understand that most traders, 90% of them, will lose ALL of their money during their first few years of learning how to trade. I lost nearly all of my investments before I came to understand the markets as I do. I still do not consider myself an expert, even though I've been trading since 2013.
Be careful. But remember, if you don't take the risk, you'll never get the reward. Don't risk more than you can afford to lose.
However, if that happens, it just so happens that the 1D ichimoku resistance cloud has the same breakout point, meaning that we break the 4h, we also break the 1D and we will likely end up in a very strong rally.
Only if we can break above that 4h ichimoku cloud though.
Don't count my charts out yet! It may happen!
If we look at this consolidation and look back at prior rallies, keeping in mind that consolidation usually only drops back to the 61% fib retracement line, then we have 1 rally that started in Aug 2017 which ended at our All Time High and this matches the current 61% fib retracement level.
Keep in mind, the current retracement is a bullish signal, a bullish flag and if that's the case, the next rally can be larger than I estimated (measure gains from Aug until ATH for next major rally).
However, we may not be done with the bleeding yet. If we continue this retracement tomorrow or the next day, we may hit as low as $8300, which would be the 61% fib retracement since the rallies that began in April and went to our ATH.
So what I'm saying is, it would actually be really good if Bitcoin values drop to $8300, because that extends the flagpole on the bullish flag from $1100 to $20,000, meaning that our next major rally could easily gain $19,000 after consolidation. Top of the flag (break above point) is around $14,000, so if we add another $19,000 to that figure, our next target would be $33k
That $33k target is not the end, because we're simply adding numbers not percentages to the rally.
If we figure in the percentage gain from $1100 to $20,000, it is 1690% over a period of 246 days.
Current breakout point of $14,000 +1690% would give us a target of $264k by Oct-1st 2018.
I know this chart is a bit ugly, but below are a couple charts showing you what I'm talking about.
So while you may be feeling the pain today. HODL!!!
Also, it appears we have a bearish flag, which could push us down to the $8300 target some people have discussed and the more we go through each day, I'm thinking it's coming before we bounce. I think very possibly this weekend we'll see this drop before we bounce back. Hopefully it won't last long and the bounce will be hard to push us up through the 4h ichimoku cloud, so we can progress upward again.
HODL on tight.. it could be another dip incoming.
I'm kind of hoping for it, because a bigger dip will bring the bulls charging in to buy buy buy at $8300 and the market will rally like never before.. ok maybe not like never before, but it will be exciting!
1 hour ichimoku shows we're on touching on the resistance shoulder, which will push us upward most likely.
2 hour ichimoku shows us within the ichimoku cloud, which is a good sign, mostly meaning we are between resistance levels and will likely see some sideways action and since we entered into the side of the ichimoku cloud, it's likely we will exit at the top part of the cloud (this is fairly consistent in crypto).
4 hour ichimoku shows that we are still well below the 4h resistance cloud, so it will possibly push us down once we catch up to it, or we might be lucky and break through the side and out of the top, similar to what is happening on the 2 hour chart above. The blue dashed line shows our possible path over the next 24-36 hours.
The daily (1d) ichimoku is still questionable. It shows we are well below the resistance cloud and it's possible that cloud may keep us down and sideways for the next couple of weeks before we have an opportunity to break out near the green area of the cloud.
However, I have seen a lot of cases in crypto and especially with Bitcoin over the last 4 years, that we may often crash through the top of the ichimoku support cloud, only to bounce right back through the top after a few days below it. See the blue dashed line which shows our possible direction there. If we happen to follow that blue dashed line, then we will be back on course with my earlier targets (green curve), which will propel us up to $21k, $25k, $36k and as high as I originally stated $54k and very possibly on time for Feb 20th, maybe as late as Mar 1st, but somewhere near that time frame.
I hope these insights are helping you understand what I'm seeing and what I've learned from trend analysis. It's not an exact science and if anyone could predict the future, they'd be rich. But we can make educated guesses based on many technical details and prior trends across many different stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies.
I may not be right all of the time and especially not a lot the last couple weeks. However, if I'm right 50-60% of the time and the gains are 100-300% or more each time, then simple math tells us that we're making great positive gains, moreso than in the world of FOREX or stocks and bonds.
If this is the case, we see that a Cup and Handle Formation may come to fruition and the cup and handle will then help us break upward and out of the 4h ichimoku cloud. Once we're above the ichimoku cloud, it is no longer resistance, but it becomes a support level.
The gains we will see, if pushed this far sideways, will be about equal in depth of the cup and should begin around the top of the cup, so a target, if we're that far sideways, would be around $12.5k by the 24th of Feb.
This may also be just on time for the weekend rally to begin, and if we've broken through the clouds and we stay above them, the rally could be a very profitable one.
4h ichimoku shows we are just touching the cloud and ready to break through it. If we don't run into major resistance during the next 6-8 hours, we should push slightly sideways through this cloud and then come out the top for the next rally to begin. Below is a slightly modified version from the previous drawing, since we are slightly accelerated.
The 1d chart shows that we are at the bottom of the daily ichimoku resistance cloud and will be trying to break through the bottom. The red cloud is often bounced back through if we fall through the top (as we did beginning around the 9th). Expect to see us fight through the bottom of this cloud, rally inside the cloud and break out the top. First target after we break the bottom of the cloud will be around $14k.
After reaching $14k, we'll likely work our way to $16k, maybe slightly sideways as $16k is a resistance area and it may take a little time to break through that resistance level.
However, once we break above $16k, we will be on a rapid moon shot to $25k, before we hit the $25k resistance area.
I'm estimating these resistance areas based on the prior chart levels as well as the fib retracement calculation with our target being $54k overall.
Once we hit $14k, we will be on track to my original arc showing our growth from the previous all time high, to the new $54k target.
We have some very heavy resistance above us on the 1d cloud, but because we came in through the top and fell through the bottom, there is a high likelihood we will bounce and push straight up through that cloud. Resistance area to see if we break into the cloud will be around $12500-12700. If we break $13k, we're cleanly into the cloud and possibly heading straight for $15,200 to break out the top of the cloud.