BTC Monthly IchiMoki Cloud and On Balance Volume look Amazing
Introduction
I have been waiting to do this idea for over a year and it seems that the moment is finally pregnant. When I saw the W pattern I did some testing and concluded that the 1.618 would be a likely target. If the situation became properly bearish the reversal could possible take out the low of the W. Many harmonic and cypher patterns, upon reaching some intermediate targets, reverse to take out the W patterns. In this case we see that the price has found support on the previous ATH, consolidated, and continued it’s march upward. As such, the new target is now the 2.618 of the previous W pattern, with a suspected considerable consolidation at the 2 level. In other words, a move to about $390,000 with a major stall at $125,000
In a perfect world we would find price stalling within a golden pocket of 5% of the fib target. I cannot be that precise right now.
Indicators
Ichimoku Cloud
I am by no means a cloud master or a sky walker. But I can recognize patterns and to me the pattern here is clear. The bitcoin price has returned to the cloud after a significant draw down and is in the process of powering through. It has taken out the conversion line and is facing the base line as resistance. I would hope to the vast majority of readers that it seems clear that the base line is going to be flipped and we should expect a breakout to the upside.
The blue boxes on our chart show the previous examples of price interacting with the base line, conversion line, and the cloud proper and it seems clear that this situation is familiar to the previous two occurrences.
If we look at the W pattern we can see price stalled at the base line and there was strong profit taking above it. There is a minority chance that we are in a similar position. I would say it is less than 10%. One of the main reasons why I believe such is the volatility in from 2018 to June 2019 was too high relative to the 2014-2016 bear market. I find that low volatility bear markets occur when smart money is buying very discreetly, trying to absorb supply as gently as possible without moving up the price much. The wild swings of the W pattern do not support that notion.
All that is fine. We have to adjust to the reality we see. This bear market has been lower volatility. So I suspect a more protracted move to the upside with a slower start.
On Balance Volume with SMAs
To speak to all of the meme speaking zoomers out there, the On Balance Volume with SMAs is low key one of my favorite indicators, fr fr ong no cap. (If you have a suspicion, then YES, I am at the age when I use slang to embarrass my kids and the next generation for my own amusement).
I kinda missed the April Fools Pump of 2019 and most of the ride up looking for a pull back. In order to make sure I did not do that again I looked for something I had missed. I suspected I had a missing tool I had neglected to put into my tool box. And I looked back on various time frames I saw an amazing tool in the OBV with SMAs. I have been using it on higher time frames to help verify bias ever since.
Almost all of TA is founded in two basic analysis: Price action and volume action. Falling or rising volume often confirm or negate price action patterns. Having bearish or bullish crosses on OBV SMAs help confirm the volume action that verifies the chart formations.
And even more simply, the OBV SMAs help verify tipping points in buying and selling pressure. When the OBV SMAs are staked bullish (OBV over the 10SMA which is over the 20) then buying pressure has obviously been bullish and the bias is towards upside. If the OBV is below the 10 SMA and that is below the 20 SMA the bias is basically bearish. Once you get that down you can add some complexity and divergence to figure out when you are in absorption or distribution.
Right now the OBV SMA situation is clearly bullish. The bias is long
What this all means
I am biased bullish as far as cryptocurrencies are concerned. My previous ideas detail why I am avoiding the Ethereum ecosystem in favor of other layer 1 currencies but I still suspect it will experience some middling upside. As for me, I am using my pull back strategy to try and get good prices as we go up and to force myself to not buy highs but to rather buy dips. I have my preferred alts right now and I have a few that I am waiting for to see how they handle their patterns. My linked ideas on fantom and link will show some pretty good calls. My largest bag is in fantom, and I wish it had more liquidity. But I would rather build a position in fantom over time and get outsized gains rather than dumping more money easily into a higher market cap coin.
You do you.
Free chart
Price landed on the monthly 100 EMA perfectly. I have a strong suspicion that the next bear market will reach the 200 EMA. The chart below shows that we don’t even have a 200 monthly EMA yet. We only have about 170-ish periods. But in the next bear market I will be there, posting my buy the dip ideas and only getting a hand full of views because everyone is to bearish to believe the bottom is in.
I have been waiting to do this idea for over a year and it seems that the moment is finally pregnant. When I saw the W pattern I did some testing and concluded that the 1.618 would be a likely target. If the situation became properly bearish the reversal could possible take out the low of the W. Many harmonic and cypher patterns, upon reaching some intermediate targets, reverse to take out the W patterns. In this case we see that the price has found support on the previous ATH, consolidated, and continued it’s march upward. As such, the new target is now the 2.618 of the previous W pattern, with a suspected considerable consolidation at the 2 level. In other words, a move to about $390,000 with a major stall at $125,000
In a perfect world we would find price stalling within a golden pocket of 5% of the fib target. I cannot be that precise right now.
Indicators
Ichimoku Cloud
I am by no means a cloud master or a sky walker. But I can recognize patterns and to me the pattern here is clear. The bitcoin price has returned to the cloud after a significant draw down and is in the process of powering through. It has taken out the conversion line and is facing the base line as resistance. I would hope to the vast majority of readers that it seems clear that the base line is going to be flipped and we should expect a breakout to the upside.
The blue boxes on our chart show the previous examples of price interacting with the base line, conversion line, and the cloud proper and it seems clear that this situation is familiar to the previous two occurrences.
If we look at the W pattern we can see price stalled at the base line and there was strong profit taking above it. There is a minority chance that we are in a similar position. I would say it is less than 10%. One of the main reasons why I believe such is the volatility in from 2018 to June 2019 was too high relative to the 2014-2016 bear market. I find that low volatility bear markets occur when smart money is buying very discreetly, trying to absorb supply as gently as possible without moving up the price much. The wild swings of the W pattern do not support that notion.
All that is fine. We have to adjust to the reality we see. This bear market has been lower volatility. So I suspect a more protracted move to the upside with a slower start.
On Balance Volume with SMAs
To speak to all of the meme speaking zoomers out there, the On Balance Volume with SMAs is low key one of my favorite indicators, fr fr ong no cap. (If you have a suspicion, then YES, I am at the age when I use slang to embarrass my kids and the next generation for my own amusement).
I kinda missed the April Fools Pump of 2019 and most of the ride up looking for a pull back. In order to make sure I did not do that again I looked for something I had missed. I suspected I had a missing tool I had neglected to put into my tool box. And I looked back on various time frames I saw an amazing tool in the OBV with SMAs. I have been using it on higher time frames to help verify bias ever since.
Almost all of TA is founded in two basic analysis: Price action and volume action. Falling or rising volume often confirm or negate price action patterns. Having bearish or bullish crosses on OBV SMAs help confirm the volume action that verifies the chart formations.
And even more simply, the OBV SMAs help verify tipping points in buying and selling pressure. When the OBV SMAs are staked bullish (OBV over the 10SMA which is over the 20) then buying pressure has obviously been bullish and the bias is towards upside. If the OBV is below the 10 SMA and that is below the 20 SMA the bias is basically bearish. Once you get that down you can add some complexity and divergence to figure out when you are in absorption or distribution.
Right now the OBV SMA situation is clearly bullish. The bias is long
What this all means
I am biased bullish as far as cryptocurrencies are concerned. My previous ideas detail why I am avoiding the Ethereum ecosystem in favor of other layer 1 currencies but I still suspect it will experience some middling upside. As for me, I am using my pull back strategy to try and get good prices as we go up and to force myself to not buy highs but to rather buy dips. I have my preferred alts right now and I have a few that I am waiting for to see how they handle their patterns. My linked ideas on fantom and link will show some pretty good calls. My largest bag is in fantom, and I wish it had more liquidity. But I would rather build a position in fantom over time and get outsized gains rather than dumping more money easily into a higher market cap coin.
You do you.
Free chart
Price landed on the monthly 100 EMA perfectly. I have a strong suspicion that the next bear market will reach the 200 EMA. The chart below shows that we don’t even have a 200 monthly EMA yet. We only have about 170-ish periods. But in the next bear market I will be there, posting my buy the dip ideas and only getting a hand full of views because everyone is to bearish to believe the bottom is in.
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