BTC to enter buying zone early 2023

2022年6月24日

Hey, folks. I'm a firm believer that BTC moves on a 4-year cycle, which is driven primarily by the halving event every 4 years. The last halving was May 2020. The next halving should be around February/March 2024. You should have all your buying done by the halving event. So we should be all-in by the spring of 2024.

But when should we start buying? Well, we can always add a little every $2,000 down (or any number you like), since no one knows where the bottom is.

However, BTC's 4-year cycle has already told us 2 times before that the bottom comes just a little more than one year after the spike.

Notice the first and second lines on this chart. The first line runs from the spike of 2013 to the bottom that followed it... which was about 14 months later.

The second line runs from the spike of 2017 to the bottom that followed it... which was about 14 months later.

In both cases, the bottom came about 14 months after the spike.

Projecting forward, then, BTC should bottom around the beginning of 2023, some 14 months after the last spike in late 2021.

But keep in mind that BTC does move sideways from the bottoming to the halving. So we can expect flattish movement from early 2023 (the next bottom) to early 2024 (the next halving). After that, we should see the next spike some time in 2025.

PS... Buying every $2,000 down or so is a good idea, just to be safe. We shouldn't worry if we buy too early. Over the long term, it really doesn't matter if we bought at 20k, 15k, or 10k. When it reaches $200,000 per coin, we won't notice the difference between buying at 20k and buying at 15k. It's a good idea to spread-out the money we want to invest and add a little every X amount down. When it hits 200k, such entry points so close together won't matter much.