Bitcoins end or a big bounce in the right direction?

Before reading this keep in mind I am new to the market and this theory will most likely be wrong.

In my opinion I think that btc will drop down to the support at 11200Usd before it bounce up to new hights at around 23k Usd. I think this will happen since in the past bitcoin has done somewhat the same.
The other thing that might happen is that bitcoin will break the 11200 support and drop down to the support at the 5500usd mark. in this case it will be overtaken by other alt coins. if this happens I believe that it will be a horrible time for the crypto market were most coins will be down for months.