Bitcoin and Wyckoff Redistribution 2 Phases

2021年7月16日

So I have seen it all on the internet lately , wyckoff this wyckoff that everyone is confused. Let me break it down for you. It seems since the 30k drop we have had 2 phases of Redistribution. This is not one whole structure. Phase 1 already played out. There are many ways to look at a structure after its buying or selling climax. First off in an accumulation you want to se higher lows developing. The moment you make a lower low you have to ask yourself is this forming a rounding out at the bottom. If it makes a lower low and is rounding out does the selling volume decrease on that lower low? If so you may be accumulating quietly. Now in this instance we have bitcoin after the 30k low making an automatic rally to 42-43k then a low around 31.1k then a lower high. but making consecutive lower highs which is inherently bearish but what matters here is the lows. So bitcoin makes a higher low around 33.3k which is good (although its a lower candle close low) and selling volume decreased which is very nice to see. And again unfortunately making another lower high again at 39.4k but what happens next is the key. It makes a lower low on increased selling volume . That was the signal that this was a bearish structure. So all that happens next is an upthrust (or some call it a bearish spring where a higher high is created to dump supply all the way down), which brought it to 28.8k.

Next we have Phase 2 of Wyckoff redistribution, Where after making its lowest low of the whole selloff, it has some bullish action making a high of 34.8k and a low of 32.3k (depending on if you consider that the low, which on the 1 hr would be considered the low) then a rise to 35.5k then a low that is not just lower than your previous 1hr low. But a lower candle close low than where it went to 28.8k. Not a good sign at all here. Then its upthrust time( bearish spring where a higher high is created to dump all the way down) So once it hit 36k you never saw that again. It created a Three Falling peaks pattern which is a classic distribution setup. where each high is lower than the last and each low is lower. Extremely bearish behavior. And if i am following Bulkowski's chart patterns the three falling peaks pattern would take it at a target of 28k. After that has played out ill reevaluate bitcoin and see if it starts to exhibit any type of bullish or bearish behavior.

Would be nice to see Bitcoin show some bullish behavior soon. But we will see what happens next