[Red Apple] Analysis for BTC/USD _ 18.07.18 'Completed Patterns'

已更新

I mentioned 'Flag pattern' from the briefing yesterday and the price was heading upward. Then, Let's start the analysis for today's BTC/USD chart.

If you are busy, you can just read below briefly
'1. Briefing '
'4. Strategy'
'5. Summary'
and click '+Thumb up, +Follow' :-)

1. Briefing
# Break the Neck-Line to upward
# The candle re-enter 'Long Term Uptrend Line'

2. Day

1) Trend Analysis
a. Use 'log chart' because linear chart is perfectly penetrated upward but the candle on log chart is slightly lying on the long term uptrend line. -> focus on close price of day candle
b. There is high possibility conversion to bull market based on Dow Theory.(Higher High)

2) Candle Analysis
Cautious about overheating

3) EMA
a. The candle is penetrating 20EMA(red) and 50EMA(purple). Only left 100EMA(orange) which is at $7247.4
b. if the trend is keep doing in this way, 20EMA and 50EMA will be golden crossed.

3. 4H

1) Trend Analysis
Same as Day analysis.

2) EMA
a. 50EMA(purple)is crossed 100EMA(orange) upward. -> 20EMA, 50EMA and 100EMA become positive arrangement.
b. However, should focus on the distance between EMA lines and Candle

3) Pattern
a.

All marked patterns( wedges , small symmetrical triangle, rectangle , large symmetrical triangle, flag pattern) is penetrated upward.
b.

There is pennant or symmetrical triangle in low frame. focus on the direction of breakthrough
c.

Completed Inverse Head and Shoulders. The target of the pattern is almost same as 'Long term down-trend Line'.

4) Indicators
not too much trust indicators but many indicators show overbought.

5) Elliott Waves

Same as previous briefing. It can be considered 3 waves and the target is $7785 ~ $8081 -> the range of target is quite similar with 'Long term down-trend'.

6) Fibonacci

The range of Fib. 0.382 ~ 0.5 was accomplished intensively past so the range may be worked as resistance.

4. Strategy
1) Bullish View :
a. Same as the previous briefing, it can be moved sideways. Therefore, focus on the pattern in low frame
b. focus on penetrating 100EMA in day chart upward and support

2) Bearish View :
a. if "long term down-trend line" is collapsed, the price will be down to about $6800

5. Summary
breakthrough upward from flag pattern in previous briefing. Hope you guys get profit. Today is quite similar situation. After dramatically going upward, move sideways. Then, as i mentioned above focus on the direction of breakthrough of the pattern in low frame. if you trade btc/usd, stop-loss should be set quite short as per 'Long term uptrend line'is collapsed or not.

If there is something significant, will comment.

If you help my idea, Click '+Thumb up, +Follow' :)

註釋

During the briefing, penetrated upward.

註釋

it was forming Wedge pattern and now it is broken downward. hope going up to inside of Wedge again.

註釋

I though if break through down-ward, it will be supported from long term up trend line(red line). but the line was drawn a bit wrong. i draw more exquisitely.
sorry for that.
as you see, it was supported from the line exactly.

註釋

Check above chart from BITFLYER which is the biggest BTC market in the world(about 46%). You can see the neck-line was worked exactly as resistance line. At the moment, the most importance issue will be breakthrough of this line.