BTC PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE SHORT TERM (UPDATED)
已更新
The total evaluation for the BTC chart is bearish. Please be reminded that the price movement displayed is evidence of a previous cycle from where we got rejected at 30-32k range, you may use that as a reference on a separate browser while comparing the two. Before listing my reasoning for the bearish price action, here are the possible edges that you may use as valid factors for maintaining your shorts:
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Now that the macro-economic factors are listed, let me explain to you the price action shown above.
A descending triangle is formed in any timeframe specifically and advisably in the 1H-4H timeframe and the 12H-1D timeframe, such pattern is usually a slow consolidation to the downside with a potential breakout to the upside at its latter. This is confirmed pattern to be used due to the "WEAKNESS" displayed every time we are nearly approaching the 22-23k$ region. The price level was rejected previously on June 16 followed by a daily candle rejection on June 21 and as of today's price reading June 26, the price is displaying significant amount of indecision and lack of volume which is manifested into a "Doji".
The red daily candle doji is displayed slightly below the highest peak of yesterday's price action which was at 21,599$ instead of closing higher to confirm a bullish bias. A weakness on the trend due to indecision is a warning sign for a potential sell-off back to the previous support of 20,700 to a potential temporary bottom of 20,000$, after that it is followed by another re-test of up to a maximum of 21,200$ being confirmed as resistance (TRIPLE TOP) and sending it down in a staircase-like manner to a maximum temporary bottom of 19,600$ which will serve as support similar to the 29k region. After that, it will now enter a consolidation pattern from 19,600 to 20,800$ for a while until it breaks out to the upside to validate the descending triangle.
The breakout to the upside will ultimately be a disbelief rally, a showcase of a desperate attempt to get out of the bearish bias which is also what we call a manipulation wick by market makers to grab liquidity out of a tight consolidation. It will most likely break tremendously beyond the 21,600$ (which was the the price for a double top) and reach a maximum of 23,800$ but not more than 24,600$, anything beyond 24k is a definite short given the fact that there are no positive fundamentals behind the pump (e.g. Lowered Inflation, Lowering Rate Hikes, Pandemic to Epidemic Status, War stopped, etc.)
The manipulation pump wick will most likely bottom out the same price at which it pumped from for days and it will be on a stair-case pattern building market structure to the downside which will give time for moving averages on the daily timeframe to cross over at its end confirming a breakdown towards the previous support (17,000-18,000$).
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F A Q S
Question 1: What are the possible invalidation points?
Answer: A descending triangle pattern is completely invalidated if we get a volume pump up until 24k which is a temporary short level and will most likely use 22k as brand new support for further legs to the upside. This completely validates, on the other hand, the Reverse HnS.
Question 2: Are dojis entirely reliable?
Answer: They do not indicate a definite move, but they help shape your decision on the gravity of the trend especially if it has been previously rejected in daily timeframes. In this case, it shows weakness potentially decreasing chances a further bullish move since it is not supported by a decent amount of volume. Remember that even if it goes up to 22k, it doesn't confirm anything until it hits 23,200$ or 24,000$. It will most likely just warrant itself a HnS pattern or a quick liquidity grab of stop losses above 22k but not more than 23k.
Question 3: Do you use any other indicators to help confirm this pattern?
Answer: Definitely. I use the Relative Strength Index, Volume Profile, Bollinger Bands, and the MACD. In the RSI, we are definitely oversold in the macro timeframe but this is often a lagging indicator and does not constitute ripples from minor timeframe that could escalate its way up to the larger timeframes. In higher TFs (at least 4H), we do not see any strong momentum on the bullish bias, it is just in the middle of the index indicating neutral pace. The MACD on the 8 hour, 12 hour and daily timeframe are unreliable as they are lagging significantly, ,the 4H timeframe shows a HnS on the buying pressure which ultimately favors the bears in the end.
Question 4: Do you use leverage or margin trading?
Answer: I do not margin trade, but I do futures trading and the way I use it is not based on a tight percentage ratio of risk-reward as I find it to be completely strict and not versatile enough to include other trading techniques such as hedging and would most likely cut off your potential profits or stop losses earlier. The true key for using leverage is to find moves with confirmation that there is a high possibility of you winning that trade with reference to past previous price actions, taking account fundamentals to inform your decisions and as well as ACCEPTING mentally and emotionally that you are risking this certain amount of money to get stopped at a reasonable level (trend turnovers) if in any case you are wrong. I abhor revenge trading.
Thank you for reading and I hope you get a good short trade on this. If you do end up profitable on this move, do not forget to like, comment about your experiences and share to your friends!
-Wamses
- The impending doom for the overpriced housing market and its highly potential crash
- The Pandemic that has still caused multiple variant to remain challenging since 2020 and has not been given an epidemic-endemic status.
- The Russian-Ukraine War that has yet to be resolved and would likely not be in the longer term until Putin's goal is accomplished.
- The consistent strength of monthly negative Consumer Price Index reports showing increasing amount of inflation.
- Increasing amount of Rate Hikes by the FED to challenge inflation (Possible 100 Point Rate Hike)
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Now that the macro-economic factors are listed, let me explain to you the price action shown above.
A descending triangle is formed in any timeframe specifically and advisably in the 1H-4H timeframe and the 12H-1D timeframe, such pattern is usually a slow consolidation to the downside with a potential breakout to the upside at its latter. This is confirmed pattern to be used due to the "WEAKNESS" displayed every time we are nearly approaching the 22-23k$ region. The price level was rejected previously on June 16 followed by a daily candle rejection on June 21 and as of today's price reading June 26, the price is displaying significant amount of indecision and lack of volume which is manifested into a "Doji".
The red daily candle doji is displayed slightly below the highest peak of yesterday's price action which was at 21,599$ instead of closing higher to confirm a bullish bias. A weakness on the trend due to indecision is a warning sign for a potential sell-off back to the previous support of 20,700 to a potential temporary bottom of 20,000$, after that it is followed by another re-test of up to a maximum of 21,200$ being confirmed as resistance (TRIPLE TOP) and sending it down in a staircase-like manner to a maximum temporary bottom of 19,600$ which will serve as support similar to the 29k region. After that, it will now enter a consolidation pattern from 19,600 to 20,800$ for a while until it breaks out to the upside to validate the descending triangle.
The breakout to the upside will ultimately be a disbelief rally, a showcase of a desperate attempt to get out of the bearish bias which is also what we call a manipulation wick by market makers to grab liquidity out of a tight consolidation. It will most likely break tremendously beyond the 21,600$ (which was the the price for a double top) and reach a maximum of 23,800$ but not more than 24,600$, anything beyond 24k is a definite short given the fact that there are no positive fundamentals behind the pump (e.g. Lowered Inflation, Lowering Rate Hikes, Pandemic to Epidemic Status, War stopped, etc.)
The manipulation pump wick will most likely bottom out the same price at which it pumped from for days and it will be on a stair-case pattern building market structure to the downside which will give time for moving averages on the daily timeframe to cross over at its end confirming a breakdown towards the previous support (17,000-18,000$).
-------------------------------------------------------
F A Q S
Question 1: What are the possible invalidation points?
Answer: A descending triangle pattern is completely invalidated if we get a volume pump up until 24k which is a temporary short level and will most likely use 22k as brand new support for further legs to the upside. This completely validates, on the other hand, the Reverse HnS.
Question 2: Are dojis entirely reliable?
Answer: They do not indicate a definite move, but they help shape your decision on the gravity of the trend especially if it has been previously rejected in daily timeframes. In this case, it shows weakness potentially decreasing chances a further bullish move since it is not supported by a decent amount of volume. Remember that even if it goes up to 22k, it doesn't confirm anything until it hits 23,200$ or 24,000$. It will most likely just warrant itself a HnS pattern or a quick liquidity grab of stop losses above 22k but not more than 23k.
Question 3: Do you use any other indicators to help confirm this pattern?
Answer: Definitely. I use the Relative Strength Index, Volume Profile, Bollinger Bands, and the MACD. In the RSI, we are definitely oversold in the macro timeframe but this is often a lagging indicator and does not constitute ripples from minor timeframe that could escalate its way up to the larger timeframes. In higher TFs (at least 4H), we do not see any strong momentum on the bullish bias, it is just in the middle of the index indicating neutral pace. The MACD on the 8 hour, 12 hour and daily timeframe are unreliable as they are lagging significantly, ,the 4H timeframe shows a HnS on the buying pressure which ultimately favors the bears in the end.
Question 4: Do you use leverage or margin trading?
Answer: I do not margin trade, but I do futures trading and the way I use it is not based on a tight percentage ratio of risk-reward as I find it to be completely strict and not versatile enough to include other trading techniques such as hedging and would most likely cut off your potential profits or stop losses earlier. The true key for using leverage is to find moves with confirmation that there is a high possibility of you winning that trade with reference to past previous price actions, taking account fundamentals to inform your decisions and as well as ACCEPTING mentally and emotionally that you are risking this certain amount of money to get stopped at a reasonable level (trend turnovers) if in any case you are wrong. I abhor revenge trading.
Thank you for reading and I hope you get a good short trade on this. If you do end up profitable on this move, do not forget to like, comment about your experiences and share to your friends!
-Wamses
交易進行
Pattern just got validated with confirmation of multiple rejects around 21,500 and a short squeeze around 21,800$. Negative fundamentals in the stock market also help confirm the move to the downside.
交易進行
20,000$ level has been reached, partial profits are taken with other positions' stop losses are set to breakeven. Remaining positions will be held for the long term until 17,800$.交易進行
Partial profits has been taken around 19,150$ with 1 long position being break-even from 20,400.Will do a long from 19,600-20,000 to 21,500$交易進行
Took profit around 20,200$ after failure to maintain a break to the upside with a fundamental news of DXY pumping causing smart money futures to tumble down. Shorted around 19,900$ and will take partial profit once we hit 18,800.
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