BTCUSD - Ballsy Short to 29.5k, which may not hold.

I'm calling this a ballsy short because the price action is a little weird with this rising wedge as it was with the last one that BTC was in.

The last rising wedge call was a success, and I will attach that to this idea.

According to how the trendlines are drawn here, we've broken out of the rising wedge. We tried to regain the trendline and just failed to do so, and pushed down again.

Rising wedge measurement and fib confluence lead us to 29.5k.

Seeing how this is the 5th to 6th time we've tested that area, I am not sure if it holds this time.

Amidst everyone's Wyckoff accumulation bull pump speculation, this is a ballsy short. So the ballsy term is 2 fold - weird price action, and plenty of bullish speculation.

Please use stop/loss and don't over leverage.

Thank you!

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here is another way that the trendline could be drawn - we are still broken down below it now via drawing it this way.

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1.618 bounce

註釋

the dollar is in overbought territory, though - so that doesn't bode well for bearish activity on BTC

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The dollar should remain bullish overall even after taking a breather soon if it does. That would give bitcoin a chance for a recovery rally while the dollar cools off, and then once the dollar wakes back up, that'll be time for btc to finally take a dump I think.

註釋

we should test 34k soon - if that can be established as support, this idea is likely invalidated.

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This idea could also be construed like this, where it just did a trend break, and now it is trying to recapture the trendline. I like the other two interpretations better, though.

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With the dollar pushing hard now and setting its self up for a pullback - I would expect wherever the local bottom ends up being for BTC to hold, and then commence on a recovery rally for BTC and crypto as a whole.

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