2023-24/25 is not a new cycle!

2023年7月6日

I studied this chart for a long time. Once it became evident that the percentages were decreasing I took a closer look at how the past played out.

Percentages:

• 2014 top had a whopping 50'000% increase
  
• 2018 also in the 12'000 %
  
• 2021 only around 2000 %
  

Starting in the 2021 bull run I heard people scream for 200-200k BTC. It would have been accurate if it behaved exactly like it did in the last bull cycle.

But it seems obvious that more money has to flow into the Market to increase the price. And the higher it gets the slower the price increase will continue. Common sense.

If we get back to the percentages there is a scheme behind it. It was historically always five times less than in the previous cycle.

If it continues that way we can expect around 400 %. And this means around 77'000 $

Fibonacci:

If the percentages are getting smaller obviously the fib extensions become smaller also.

In the chart you see the following:

• 2018 its pitch point nailed a full extension from its "lowest" fib line
  
• 2021 it came slightly short of a full fib extension
  
• 2024 first the lowest fib, then the normal and if we take the highest fib line we match this ca. 77'000 $ once again
  

Not only did a full fib extension from the 2018 bear market foresee a 75'000 $ Bitcoin. Also, the 2023 bear market has the same target. This matches also the narrative of extended cycles. So the top of the next run will be only slightly over the ATH we know today.

If the altcoins already had a partial surge and a big altcoin season appears at around 70-85k it is an exit sign for me.

And now bet your house and sell your car and follow my prediction blindly!*

*almost sad that I had to make this disclaimer telling you it was a joke.