If this is not book example of H&S, i don't know what else it is

2018年4月19日

Hello Everyone,

Welcome to my today's analysis on BTC. I haven't really wanted to post my analysis, since there are a lot of good analysts of BTC out there, but i am really concerned by the fact, that noone has evaluated formation of the following pattern. Forget about Elliot Waves, forget about indicators for now and let's focus purely on market psychology, patterns and trendlines.

As for now, we see a textbook head and shoulders pattern forming (in orange) that we are most likely going to break shortly. To be honest, i just don't see any triangle, wedge nor flag forming. Instead we are fulfilling all the aspects of reversal pattern called "Head and shoulders". To explain more in detail, the head top was formed with less volume then the left arm, followed by formation of right arm with even less volume. Just can't help myself... this is a textbook example (Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, John J. Murphy, page 104).

Let's assume i am hallucinating and focus on the bull side for a moment. What pattern do the bulls trade? I don't see any. Even if the H&S pattern does not materialize, the price with recent volume will reach maximum the logarithmic downtrend line (red) when even the most risky long positions will take profit. And i am pretty sure, a lot of bears will be entering the market once again. On the other side, if the current price breaks below the neckline (orange H&S) there will be a massive sell-off as the bears have been rekt recently and want to go eye for an eye.

TLDR: I just don't see the bulls gaining more traction that they currently have.

As for the trading, i am accumulating my short position with each higher high and if the neckline is broken with significant volume, i am going to reinforce it even more with stop moving from 9200 to 8000. (Disclaimer: this is not a trading advice!). My targets are 7250, 6550 and 5050.

PS for bulls!
If we test top of the downtrend line, we might see a potential reversal pattern of inverse H&S forming (but for now, i see it as unlikely - in green). With current high, the pattern would not be valid as the right arm would be lower than the head.