Resistance At Geo's Rule #2; Bears Eye 170.70 | #bitcoin $BTC

2016年2月10日

SYNOPSIS:

A long silence here on BTC #BitStamp, as the Geo completes an imperfect 5-prime (see parallel lines validation at 5') - Per Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, this 5-prime definition called for a rally with a HIGH probability target corresponding to the price level of Point-4. Turns out, this is exactly what price did, as it rallied from 5' but failed to continue its ascent above the price level of Point-4 - See light PINK range in the following chart:




GEO CONSTRUCTION:

For the adept in Geo, look for a near perfect construction, where 1-2 Leg represents a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, the 2-3 Leg represents a complex Elliott Wave (EW) ZZ, the 3-4 Leg represents a simple EW ZZ, and price departs from the validation of the Geo's 1-3 Line.


GEO's OFF-SET RULE:

As a reminder, the Geo's Off-Set Rule represent a geometric compensation where distortion of price along the 1-3 and 2-4 Line will tend to displace the high probability target, such that:

Off-Set Rule #1 - If price rallies from Point-5, the HIGH probability target lies along the 1-4 Line (same as Wolfe Wave target);

Off-Set Rule #2 - If price rallies from Point-5', the HIGH probability target lies at the price level corresponding to Point-4 (as was the case in this example);

AND

Off-Set Rule #3 - If price rallies from Point-5'', the HIGH probability target lies at the price level corresponding to Point-3.

NOTE that the relative incidence of these rules are such that:

Off-Set Rule #2 > Off-Set Rule #1 >>> Off-Set Rule #3


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

Aside from this background geometry, the Predictive/Forecasting Model offers the two following high-probability target:

1 - TG-1 = 266.41 - 09 FEB 2016

AND

2 - TG-Lox = 170.70 - 09 FEB 2016


INVALIDATION:

The higher target that were defined last November remain unattainable at this point, based on the interdicting nature of the Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, whereby price remains subordinate to the Geo's 1-4 Line. However, invalidation of this rule should occur IF price BACA > 1-4 Line (RED arrows), in which case, bearish target would also become invalid.


OVERALL:

Bearish outlook based on background Geo's rule and supported by Predictive/Forecasting Model's bearish target - Invalidation depends upon price breaching above the 1-4 Line.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter: 4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: tradingview.com/u/4xForecaster/
-----


.

2016年2月10日

註釋

09 FEB 2016 - ADDENDUM:

In the case of an adverse excursion (here, we are referring to a rally), consider $502 a reasonable threshold for bear to worry:


Best,

David Alcindor

2016年2月13日

註釋

13 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for possibility of price carving a higher high, now that it appears to consolidate at the above 388.58 resistance level:


Watch for the WW/Geo completion here.

Best,

David Alcindor

2016年2月13日

註釋

13 FEB 2016 - ADDENDUM:

BLACK Geo completes at 5 versus BLUE Geo completing at 5':


Another intermediate geo also completed at the current price level - Price is being pressured down. If price breaks > 392.00, then bulls got out of this sticky tar pit.

David

David

2016年2月13日

註釋

13 FEB 2016 - ADDENDUM:

Adding structural top level at 391.88 and WL at 393.88:


David Alcindor

2016年2月13日

註釋

Typo: WL = 398.99 (not 393.88):



David Alcindor

2016年2月17日

註釋

16 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for this 1.618-Fib retracement on M15x4 timeframe since WL failure:


Would correspond to 0.386-Fib retracement and structural support.

Best,

David Alcindor

2016年5月25日

註釋

25 MAY 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

502 may represent a make or brake in this DAILY chart - Look for this developing geometry ... Staying off of lower timeframes:



Best,

David Alcindor

2016年6月5日

註釋

05 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Analysis had to occur at the WEEKLY level, but most recent targets remain intact:



Look for the potential development of a WW/Geo, with Point-3 possibly occurring in the area defined by the 591/647 zone.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster

2016年6月7日

註釋

07 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Speculative play in #bitcoin:



Best,

David Alcindor

2016年6月8日

註釋

07 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Friends,

Using the chart I posted recently, here is how the WW/Geo would fit in the speculative price pathway:



Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster

2016年6月8日

註釋

07 JUN 2016 - Addendeum:

Potential reciprocal ab = cd symmetry development, approximates targets:



Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

2016年6月12日

註釋

11 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price hit 612.96 target. As per WEEKLY forecast, expecting slight retracement, likely towards the 502 structural support:



Best,

David Alcindor

2016年6月17日

註釋

17 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Bears reached a nosebleed WL level defined in the Weekly chart as a make-or-break level (i.e.: having to convert to a Monthly level analysis if price closed the week above that level).

However, a reversal pattern may be forming, looking at a potential H&S with internal bearish impulse now pointing:



Looking at the H1 level, a soft support exists at the 686.56/676.80 range, with potential decline below to the 470.02 (502 in the Weekly chart, although this level of refinement can only be confirmed if and once price follows a bearish downward course, as forecast in the Weekly chart.

Have a wonderful weekend,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

2016年6月18日

註釋

18 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch out for this potential bearish pathway:



David Alcindor

2016年6月19日

註釋

18 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Double-topped; Bears remain in charge:



David

2016年6月20日

註釋

20 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Look for these successive levels of support:

$BTCUSD/Bitstamp - M15:


$BTCUSD/Bitstamp - H1:


Best,

David Alcindor

2016年6月20日

註釋

20 JUN 2016 - Chart update:

Break of this support may fashion the ominous H&S:



Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

2016年6月21日

註釋

20 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Price hit the 706 level ... Bears pressing on:



Best,

David

2016年6月21日

註釋

20 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Price stomped at neckline range, ... Defines a higher-probability H&S pattern ... Bearish:



Best,

David Alcindor

2016年6月21日

註釋

21 JUN 2016 - Chart Update;

First, happy first day of summer!

Second: Bears remain in force, as price continues to decline from the forecast WL and follows the bearish forecast:



Best,

David Alcindor

2016年6月22日

註釋

22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price cleared the forecast 686/676 range, fell and now tests the presumed H&S neckline - Per H1 Model, look for a support at the 559.95 level at this timeframe, whereas bears remain the dominant force in the longer frames:



David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster

2016年6月23日

註釋

22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price fell as forecast, hitting lower numerical target, TG-1 = 559.95:



At this point, as per TG-1 nature, expect a retracement (as opposed to reversal seen in qualitative targets), up to, but unlikely above the 676/686 range, which represents to prior target.

Best,

David Alcindor, CM Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

2016年6月23日

註釋

22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Remember this overall WEEKLY chart:



Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

2016年6月24日

註釋

23 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Retracement target range of 686/676 was hit, as per dashed forecast line:



David Alcindorr, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

2016年6月24日

註釋

24 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As forecast, price is retracting from overhead target zone, following a sustained ascent after hitting lower target - Outlook remains bearish:



Look for a breach and sustained, impulsive move above the prior target-hit at 759.09 for an invalidation of current predictive analysis and forecast.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

2016年6月25日

註釋

24 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

As price continues to follow the dashed arrow pathway closely, here is some refinement of the predictive analysis:

1 - Price is likely to break above 683.88 - By doing so, bulls are fighting an uphill battle, meeting significant resistance at the 714.01 level, and likely being stomped with probable reversal at the 744.15 level.
2 - Invalidation of reversal scenario would occur if price BACA > 778.85
3 - Bearish forecast remains intact and in force, as per recently posted WEEKLY chart.



Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster

2016年6月25日

註釋

25 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Price remains under the 683.88 handle; Still, expecting a limited upside move in the 714/744 range:



Best,

David Alcindor

2016年6月26日

註釋

26 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Bulls were not able to push back to expected level shown; Now carving lower-low - Bearish tack remains intact and in force:



Best,

David Alcindor

2016年6月27日

註釋

26 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Bulls are pushing back. If price BACA > 683.88, then consider 744.15 a high-probability reversal level at this lower timeframe - Still, larger TF remains bearish with lower lows eyes:



David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster

2016年7月1日

註釋

30 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

If price BACA > 683, then 144 remains the next probable highest target:



David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster

2016年7月2日

註釋

02 JULY 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price broke through 683.88 ... Look for significant bearish entrenchment in the 714.01/744.15 range:



David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

2016年8月2日

註釋

02 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price carves lower-lows, opens to bearish targets: 502.00 is probable, 309 remains possible:


Regards,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

2016年8月2日

註釋

02 AUG 2016 - Chart Update:

Price hit forecast 502 level:


CROW Code students, look for CROW cycle completion at failure following Tail completion

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

2016年8月6日

註釋

06 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for these two levels:

1 - Resistance at 645.00

AND

2 - Support at 245.16



Regards,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

2016年8月17日

註釋

17 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

High-probability reversal at the 145/666 range ... Watch for 660.02:


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

2016年11月4日

註釋

04 NOV 2016 - Announcement:

Predictive Analysis/Forecasting of Composite BTC WEEKLY chart released (BTCe + BitStamp + BitFinex)
twitter.com/4xForecaster/status/794656812322717696

David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster
- Check #CROWSignalService on Twitter for recent performance