Bitcoin - Rinse and Repeat x2

It's great to be back posting regularly, today I'll be analysing the similarities in market cycles for bitcoin .

For reference we have two charts we are going to be focusing on (use the two for comparison).

Chart #1: 2011-2014 (all time high $1160)

Chart #2: 2015-2017 (all time high $3000)

The analysis displayed in front of you is similar to my Siacoin prediction which was extremely successful (chart is shown below).

This is the reasoning behind the title "Rinse and Repeat x2".

Now back to the point, bitcoin ... As you can see from charts #1 and #2 they both follow a similar cycle, although, years apart.

Many would call this structure a parabolic curve, however, I prefer the lows touching the curve.

Both moves start of from low to high and finish on higher high 3 at their all time high, from there a double test of support can be seen on both charts.

I'm expecting a move to support around $1800 as my first target, from there I will update my analysis.

With August 1st around the corner it will be interesting to see the future direction.

As always thank you for your support!
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You need to look at all time if you want to fit an exponential. Or better yet, learn some mathematics before you start to do TA and plot a straight line on a logarithmic price plot. You can see that this rise is nowhere near as drastic as the 2014 rise, and that we haven't broken the exponential adoption price.

Keep in mind a straight line on a logarithmic plot is an exponential line on a linear plot.

ChartSmith FriskyGrub
@FriskyGrub, if you were less rude in your commentary to the op then perhaps more watchers would take you more seriously. Your "view" is your view. His "view" is his.....
+2 回覆
FriskyGrub ChartSmith
@ChartSmith, I don't care to be taken seriously or not on TA. Most people should trust their own (or at least a well thought out interpretation of someone else's). This guy was spouting nonsense and calling it TA, so I felt the need to call him out, doing so politely takes more effort and often results in no traction. Offending people gains attention.

Now anyone looking at this can will at least have something else to base any conclusions from.
+1 回覆
Hi Lewis. Great post. Have you considered the drivers of the coin market at the same points in time between the previous structures and the one developing today? For example, was there any big positive/negative news around the time that the 3rd higher highs were reached and the subsequent double test of the supports in charts 1 and 2? My point is that because of the extra emotion, fear, and hype around Aug. 1, the consolidation phase this time around could look entirely different come Aug. 1. I think a drop well below 1800 is very likely due to the fact that we won't be in a healthy, natural market correction but a dump based on fear.
+1 回覆
Perfect chart!!!
@yuri609, thank you!!!
Can you explain to me how your support level of around 1800 is THE SAME as the resistance levels that you are comparing it to?
@StoneLuv, the price structure is very similar between both charts, it's not THE SAME (wrong choice of word) but similar.

If you look at both charts after reaching the all time high, we moved from the all time high to low followed by a retracement then a further low at support.

Almost identical if you ask me, I hope this answered your question.
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