已更新

BTC short-term view

Hi all,

I would like to share my short-term analysis for BTC based. As seen in chart, I expect that BTC will revisit the long-term trendline, at around $23000s (or even below!). The reason is that BTC seems to form a distribution pattern following Wyckoff method.

Before reaching this low, BTC would move as follows:

Scenario A: BTC will resume its leg-down to the expected target after consolidating around the current support $27000.
Scenario B: BTC will hold this support ($27000) and go up again to $30000s before falling to the long-term trendline

I'd appreciate if you can share your thoughts in comments.

Thanks and have good trades!

註釋

I think that an Elliott 5-waves would make sense for the current moves of BTC. BTC would go down to retest the lower trendline of the ascending channel (wave 4) then bounce up to 29k-30k to finish the 5th wave (scenario B). However, we should prepare for scenario A as well.

註釋

BTC' is in the middle of the ascending channel. What I thought (test of lower trendline) the has not come yet. High volatility is expected next week with CPI, war news...

註釋

Finally, the retest of the support trendline is about to come:

註釋

BTC had almost touched the trendline. I'm still waiting for this retest for potential LONGs. Some alcoins have already forerun BTC

註釋

Finally BTC touched the support trendline of the channel and is breaking it. This is a critial point. My preference change: possibly Scenario A is more likely to happen. I'm waiting for the 12H candle to close to confirm it.

註釋

The ascending channel was broken. A retest of the broken trendline would be opportunity to reinforce your Shorts and open Shorts.
Next targets are $25000s and $23000s, respectively

註釋

As mentionned in the above comment, a retest of the EMA50D and the broken trendline seems to come. It'd be opportunities for new SHORTs (or reinforce opened SHORTs):

註釋

BTC is rising and now retesting the EMA50D. If effect of news on SEC is good, it'll retest the lower trendline of the ascending channel

註釋

BTC is trying to retest the broken trendline, around $27500. I'll be looking for short BTC (and some alcoins) at this moment. Please check my telegram for a synthesis of on-going trades: t.me/MyCryptoTrends

手動結束交易

I end this analysis here because the channel structure was no long valid due to fake news on BTC ETF. However this does not change completely my short-term view. I update this analysis with a new one, which is as follow