The Bitcoin 4 year cycle is a crowded trade.

2024年9月16日

Since inception bitcoin had the following pattern:
- 3 years bull market (Green area), 1 year bear market (Red area)
- 3 years bull market (Green area), 1 year bear market (Red area)
- 3 years bull market (Green area), 1 year bear market (Red area)

The Bitcoin post halving pump is a crowded trade.

We posit that the last 4 year cycle will be the reverse.

1 year bull market followed by a 3 years bear market.

Note:
This thesis is the 16 year market cycle theory. The Dotcom Bubble had a similar 16 year cycle. It is also part of a larger 51.6 years cycle theory.

2024年10月8日

交易進行

This theory will be over if bitcoin manages to go > 74K.

So far it hasn't.

2024年10月30日

交易進行

The theory will be invalidate if there is a new All Time High and March 2024 is not the macro ATH.

2024年10月31日

註釋

Bitcoin reachec 73,620 on Binance on Oct 20, 2024. The March 2024 ATH was 73,777. So Bitcoin was within $156 to invalidate this theory.

2024年11月7日

交易結束：達到停損點

This thesis is dead.

Trump got elected and let's pump everything!!