monkia

BTCUSD - Trading the corrective wave

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
1070瀏覽
13
1070 19
If you have been following my posts (Trading the potential bear trap at 12k and Managing risk in a key area) you'll see that I have been concerned of risks around the 11.5-12k area. I still believe that a significant retrace or double bottom will help this market bounce back more quickly and go on to 50k in Q2 but I am mindful that this may not happen.

Following the 6k bottom, I bought on the way down and up with an average in of 8.5k and sold 50% of that for an average of 11.4k. I am now looking to either trade back in with the remaining 50% or sell the balance.

What is the BTCUSD market doing?
We have completed 5 waves and are in the correction. I am comfortable we have completed (a) and (b) and are now in (c). The chart has labels for the minor wave count within the (a) and (b) waves. The minor wave count makes this a Zig Zag wave, which would often see wave (c) about the same length as (a). If this holds, an initial target for (c) would be around 9.6k. This would represent a 0.382 retrace of the 6-11.8k bull wave and a 2.0 extension of (a). It coincides with various other support shown on the chart.

What happens after that?
There are various scenarios but I see three that are more likely to happen:
1) We are actually just in the (A) leg of an ABC and the current ( abc ) are minor waves within it. This would allow for a retrace back up as part of the (B) wave before another corrective (C) wave. My conviction is that under this scenario we would see the (B) retest the recent high at 11.8k.
2) This (c) completes the retrace and we enter a new 1-5 impulse wave up to 14-15k and beyond.
3) This wave down continues as part of a 1-5 impulse wave down.

My plan
My conviction is that (1) or (2) will happen, so I will be on the look out for the reversal around 9.6k. The target at this stage will be the 11.8k with the opportunity to let it run if it looks like it is a new impulse wave rather than an ABC . The stop loss would be at the bottom of this local support area (9.4k). This presents a very nice risk reward (R:8). However it is a risky trade because, until we break the 13k area, I think we are still in a large bear wave.

(c) might not get to the target, going up from here or stopping around the 10.2k area. If it doesn't I'll wait out until I see clear signs of a new impulse wave.

If we break through the 9.6k area I will look to sell my remaining 50% balance at the 9.4k area.

評論: It looks like we will get to the target area A for me to enter a long trade. I have updated the wave count on the way down. It looks pretty certain that this is an ABC of count 5-3-5. I have marked the trade I will be considering entering on the chart. It is the same entry and stop as before but the target is now lower.

The target is now 11k, what would be the 0.618 fib retrace of the A wave down, which coincides with the long term diagonal down and the resistance we saw on the way up in the recent bear wave.

Tight stop loss around 9.3k which gives an R:4. If it goes through that I think it will head to about 9k and I'll potentially re-enter there.

I'll only enter if I can see a reversal.

評論: One point to note when I make and share my plans, I am not saying "This is what is going to happen". I am looking at potential scenario(s) that *might* unfold that might allow me to consider a new trade. For example, as @gusccbb says below, we could well have just completed the A wave and be going up on the B wave. This might be more probable than what I have suggested would allow me to enter a new trade.

p.s. I will try and avoid saying things like this:

" It looks like we will get to ....."
評論: I do not think this is not a bounce..... yet. The volume is too low. This is just responding to overselling (RSI) exhaustion on a short term basis.
交易進行: Spot: 9676.5
SL: 9345
Target 11,000
評論: I've gone long with a partial amount and will add to it as this develops. The reasons for going in now, albeit on a small TM:

RSI divergence
Key area hit and a 'bounce' off it
Retrace was minor (0.382)

評論: So far so good. I have moved the stop loss up to my entry (9677) because that area has since been tested twice and rejected, so if it is breached now, it has a higher likelihood of falling to the next support.
So missed out on that 15% gain. Not sure am reading the chart right but there was a flash crash below the previous 9.6k so a lower low which means we will prob go through this. Tricky to now know when to buy as we could be going quite a bit lower without a meaniful bounce again like the one we just did until the 6k area which we then either bounce off properly or retest and go lower. Am prob thinking there will be some sort of bounc at 6. Any points of interest we will pass on the way there?
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Grrr I would have been in on this if not travelling
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Mais avec btc on sais jamais
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monkia busbia
@busbia, il y a de l'argent à avoir deux façons :-)
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False bounce now then retest then false bounce and retest for a bit then down though the support I think. Would be nice to get a trade from 9.6 up to 11 or higher but overall this is too bearish methinks and we have to go for a double bottom at 6k and perhaps go up to similar tests of the downward trend before going below 6k. I just don't think there has been enough blood on the streets yet for a proper bull run.
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monkia busbia
@busbia, Yes maybe 6 is needed. But maybe not. That's why any long trade should have clear risk reward for short term gain. Worst case, it wont tumble all the way to 6 or less without some retraces. Good case, the short term gain can be left to ride up.
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Looks like path is close on the (c) wave... At a minimum, still expecting to re-test this again today?
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monkia icerobots
@icerobots, it may not happen today or at all. It might test 10.3k again and come down (tomorrow) or blast on through. However, if it goes there and has a bounce I'll be buying.
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@monkia, buying yet, its at 9660, or still waiting for it to stabilize a bit?
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monkia icerobots
@icerobots, I need to see reversal to buy. It could shoot on through to 9k. I want to see it go lower than my target and then come back up. Although I'm unlikely to be in front of the computer the next few hours, so I might put a lower limit order in.
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