My Whaley Stop Hunt: Update - Trending vs the historical FOREX

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A lot of nervous hands right now, and rightfully so. There is obvious room for a further 20% slide (relative to fall we have seen this year this is small potatoes but offers considerable additional gains if the market reaches ATH again). I hope for further upside here though I don't expect the market to edge much past 9k if it does go up.

I adjusted the historical FOREX Stop Hunt trendline down to match closely with the BTC pricing levels (and increased the trended line angle to adjust for the spike so consider this manipulated* and the grey lines are just me tracking the developing flag). It seems on-trend and despite the ups and downs in the last day the target of 8,500 for BTC is marked for tonight at around 01:00 CET. Will hold on as deep as possible. I'm still very hesitant about following this trendline as it is based on a totally different market but the IDEA/Hypothesis remains the same** as this is merely an experiment to understand how greatly the market is manipulated. I've noticed a few traders following the 2014 BTC crash trend - whilst similar in nature, I feel that this is obvious and has generated some emotional calls which the Market Maker will capitalise on - Take all Ideas, amateur and pro to formulate your own.

Good luck.

* I've posted the original map on twitter (at some point I drew a face on it for reasons I know not) - @HardForky
**Stop Hunts / Squeeze / Traps / etc are manipulations and are centered on taking advantage of behavioral economic traits exhibited by traders. This is why the market maker always wins - it creates the TA and I practice the idea that the whole market is a trap unless there are influences like influx of new money as we saw in December. However, the MM cannot be greedy and needs to share a little wealth and here lies opportunity for 10% of traders which I would like to be part of. The trend highlighted is indicative and the BTC market has dropped lower than the historical market in question - It also traces back for 2 months so I would be surprised that a manipulation would follow a trend so religiously.

Yep, full of conspiracy theory so I would take this all with a pinch of salt ;)

評論: Note: in a declining market I'd expect this trend to fail and as folks start to go long the MM will go for their stops (probably placed under the $6k mark - this will then drive a large rebound once the stops sell off, allow the MM to do some buying and then jump on board with all the $5-$6k bottom traders waiting to go long.
評論: Running in-line with trend...
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