Why the halvings still matter
已更新
The Bitcoin code is exactly that... code!! It has been written to satisfy a series of problems namely that of out of control central bank money creation and subsequent inflation. It is, as we all know, the hardest money ever created. It has baked into it a supply shock which halfs the available amount mined every 210,000 blocks or roughly 4 years. As such extraordinary parallels can be drawn when looking at these halving cycles.
Every single halving has found itself within days of the exact midpoint between a macro low and a macro high of the same cycle.
The previous 2 cycles have lasted exactly 1064 days.
The previous 2 bear market corrections have been 85% ±1%
If we continue to see this cyclic behaviour then we should not expect to see a macro bottom until late October/Early November at a price somewhere around $12,500.
This is merely a pattern and should not be considered financial advice or a prediction.
Every single halving has found itself within days of the exact midpoint between a macro low and a macro high of the same cycle.
The previous 2 cycles have lasted exactly 1064 days.
The previous 2 bear market corrections have been 85% ±1%
If we continue to see this cyclic behaviour then we should not expect to see a macro bottom until late October/Early November at a price somewhere around $12,500.
This is merely a pattern and should not be considered financial advice or a prediction.
註釋
It would look like the halvings still matter!Although the Bitcoin price only reached $14930 (on CME), a significant potential macro low has formed on the exact week highlighted on the projected chart. This suggests that there is clearly still a case to continue the thought that halvings really do still matter. I still believe there is a strong case for Bitcoin to form a lower macro low but this is based on the precarious position of the wider macro economic landscape which will be discussed in future posts.
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