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Pump to 4.2k (Bounce off of Weekly 200SMA)

已更新

We are currently sitting on the 200 Weekly SMA which is one of the strongest levels of support. I believe we will pump up to at least 4.2k which is where the orange line on the chart is. We may struggle on the way up with the 21EMA (green line on chart) which could make the price drop a bit and form the 1st and 2nd wave of a trend. We could also move sideways for a bit before we go up but I don't think we'll go lower than this, at least for awhile. Too many people calling and waiting for 3k which leads me to believe that we will not go there, at least not soon.

The RSI has been showing bullish divergence for awhile and is well above oversold levels, this leads me to believe that the first pump won't be too big because the RSI will be in overbought levels quick. Because of this and the 21EMA I strongly believe this price action will create the 1st and 2nd wave of the trend that will come soon.

註釋

I realized that I set this idea as "short", I thought that meant short term. This is definitely a long/buy.

註釋

So far so good, we seem to be having a little bit of trouble going up and I believe this is the culprit.

交易進行

We are currently over a major support/resistance level that has had an effect all this month. I have labeled it as Weekly support, if we can hold this level we will no doubt go higher.

註釋

We have reached the 1st resistance I knew we'd hit and that's the 21EMA on the daily time frame.

I recommend taking some profits here and maybe set a short stop loss on the chance we go up which is possible but I've begun to notice some bearish divergence on lower time frame charts.

I believe we're going to go down and test the weekly support again before we continue the uptrend.

註釋

I grossly underestimated the strength of this rally and assumed the daily 21EMA would be enough to slow it down. The fomo was strong and last night I noticed some hidden bullish divergence that canceled the bearish divergence.

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/g/gIpVj5eK.png

I have no doubt that we're going down from here.

註釋

Looks like we are finally on the way down. The 4H is close to being oversold however I think it will be a small bounce which will be the B wave of this retrace. We are below the 21EMA and 200SMA on the 4h which is very bearish. The 50SMA (orange line) an 100SMA (red line) are right on the weekly support so that will most likely be the buy target.

註釋

I've redrawn the ABC pattern and using 2 fib retracements I made a more believable. If you think it's going up you should know that at the time of me posting this update the 1h, 2h, 12h and 1D are overbought. If you haven't taken profits now is a good time.

交易結束：目標達成

Well the target was reached and almost every timeframe right now is overbought so I'm gonna call this a success. The correction didn't happen as planned but hey we still made profits.