Possible Quick Flush and Bigger Bull Trap Now.

2月26日

I'd say we're now at the point where BTC bulls have the best chance of a low. We're filling a bullish butterfly and if all is well and good with the world this can moon.

However, the failure of a bullish butterfly in this situation is a strong foreteller of a crash. There are a variety of ways a 1.61 can fail here. The immediate fail one usually has us slam to the 2.20 and then make a spike out bull trap (that's really sharp and aggressive).

So if we see a flush to around 80, this is where I plan to lock in profits and potentially fish for some longs.

But if that move hits, I do firmly think it's a sell the rip.

2月26日

交易進行

Down it goes.

I think there's a bit more to go but were now into the risk area for bears. Bears should be aggressive profit protecting here I think.

No reason to enter until local candles break the lower high pattern.

2月26日

註釋

I;m fairly bullish at these levels - but I believe we just made an important break. A bit over 90K there will be more bear talk if we bounce.

2月26日

交易結束：目標達成

77K probably too low. Fair chance low is made.

Big sell the rip if it is though.

Out shorts.

3月2日

註釋

This has filed the optimal short level. Sizing up broad crypto shorts now.

3月2日

註釋

Real wipe out event possible.

Would really think it's a great idea to be getting full out crypto - imminently.

3月2日

註釋

Classic pattern would have us at the end of the bull trap and heading into a puke now.


Spikes above for stop hunts are still a risk. In classic TA, top is in.

3月2日

註釋

Here's an inlay of the OP and current chart to show where we'd be in the classic TA.

3月2日

註釋

Super parabolic to the high. High is made first time in the run up. We have a couple sell off legs. Mostly a range in hindsight. Run back to spike out chasey shorts and bring in bulls expecting a breakout - and then yank.

Markets move really really fast in the areas they will reverse and then they stay there for a long time. This is how people end up buying at the highs. That's when you have the time to think about it.

A reversals will then move away so fast there's not time to react.

Typically ending with the same thing. Sheer capitulation into the lows giving no time to think. Then a drawn out bottoming period.

3月2日

註釋

From a bull's perspective this looks like it has to be GREAT news, but this is very standard in a correction.

parabolic move in the correction - that's ALWAYS the way of it.

Like a correction in a bull move is always a crash. Markets correct faster than they trended. That's the rule.

Usually, they then re-trend harder than they corrected.

...That's where the crash warning is coming from.

3月2日

註釋

In Elliot, once we know the bottom and top of wave 2 in a downtrend we know where wae 3 should go. Should go to the 220 and then we should spike to around 261 before a bigger bounce.


Here we can map in our entire drop plan if this is wave 2.

3月2日

註釋

Big waves looking something like this.

3月2日

註釋

With the sub waves flagging up the obvious short signal now.

3月2日

註釋

** One thing to note if this is a big wave 2 as shown in the first version, there might not be the typical pullbacks in this leg. It can just sell strong all the way through. Ranges and baby rallies - building to a crash event.

Wave 3 on this timeframe would be described as "A crash".

Within weeks people would be saying it was a crash.

3月3日

註釋

Locking in profits with trailing stops now. If the break is coming we should be consistently weak. Otherwise I'd be worried about a spike higher for a bull trap. I'd like to short that if it comes. And I might have the whole thing wrong, so I want to make sure I don't lose twice if I don't have to. Locked in some profits behind local swings highs, waiting to see if it breaks.

Can waterfall if we make a new low for the day.