So, first and foremost, let me state that I did not anticipate this price hike. My prediction was that bitcoin would end the previous cycle on a lower low, breaking through support and reaching prices close to $21,000.
However, this low arrived within the expected time frame. This means that I am convinced that the low of the previous cycle was formed at October 12, and that a new one will occur around December this year or possibly January of next year.
Why did I think the price would fall? If you only look in the short term, the price was in a downtrend. This was a mistake, because the price has been rising since December. All of the higher lows of each cycle confirm this uptrend (see green arrows). This is something I was ignorant of until recently.
Why did I anticipate a bottom around this time? Bitcoin moves in 65-day cycles on average. Mid to late October was merely the next end of the cycle.
So, what can we expect for the conclusion of the year? My best estimate is that the Uptober memes are back in full force, and that October and November will be profitable.
However, this low arrived within the expected time frame. This means that I am convinced that the low of the previous cycle was formed at October 12, and that a new one will occur around December this year or possibly January of next year.
Why did I think the price would fall? If you only look in the short term, the price was in a downtrend. This was a mistake, because the price has been rising since December. All of the higher lows of each cycle confirm this uptrend (see green arrows). This is something I was ignorant of until recently.
Why did I anticipate a bottom around this time? Bitcoin moves in 65-day cycles on average. Mid to late October was merely the next end of the cycle.
So, what can we expect for the conclusion of the year? My best estimate is that the Uptober memes are back in full force, and that October and November will be profitable.
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