Part 4 : The Elliot Wave road to $3k or $20k+

804 11 23
If you have been following my earlier posts part 1, part 2 and part 3, you will see that I have been watching the bear and bull scenarios since 11k. I have been trading the bear scenario since 11k, although I missed some entries because of the lack of any substantial retraces and I got stopped out on the last short entry at 7.5k yesterday. I have held the view for some time that until BTC             breaks and closes above the trendline , I will maintain a bearish view but be mindful of a switch to a bullish scenario.

BTC             has now broken and closed above the long term trend line , although there is an alternative trend line that could be valid which has not been broken yet. I am therefore moving from bearish to slightly bullish . Why am I not completely bullish and calling for my moon scenario just yet?

1) Whilst BTC             has broken the trendline it is yet to take out any other key resistance levels which in the short term are 8.5k and 9.1k. In particular, breaking and closing above 9.1k would be a significant bullish signal.

2) Whilst BTC             does not have to replicate 2014 price action it can be useful to compare against it. If it were following a similar path to 2014, I see three potential scenarios:

Scenario 1: Short term bear then bull to 11k
Refused at trend line , retest 6.5-6.8k to then break through and impulse up to 11k

Scenario 2: Bull to 11k
BTC             has broken through the trendline and will continue up impulsively to 11k

Scenario 3: Bear to 3-4k
BTC             has not broken through the alternative trend line (going through the second 11k wave) and will move back down to complete the 5th and final impulse of the C wave to 3-4k.

My instincts say we are most likely following something similar to Scenario 3. However, in the short term I will trade a bullish scenario which takes BTC             to 11k and potentially on to the moon. Invalidation of this view would be if BTC             moves back into and closes below the trendline .

In the immediate short term I added a small position long with a target of 8.4k. If BTC             tests the trend line and moves up from it I will look to add to my long position. If it breaks and closes below it, I will close my position. A drop below 7.2k will move me back to my bearish view.

評論: This is the updated bear scenario
評論: BTC hit the initial target of 8.4k and I maintained my small long position. I am now expecting to see 8k tested again, which coincides with the 0.236 fib. It may bounce from here to test the 9.1k main resistance. However, it may also continue down to 7.8k (0.382) or 7.5k (0.5 fib). If I see a bounce in any of these areas I will be looking to re-enforce my long. If BTC breaks below 7.5k I think we could see a big sell off as I imagine this will be a key place for stops on a lot of longs. I have also labelled an ABC formation in grey which we might have completed, ready for the next big wave down.

評論: The next few hours are important, I expect to see a big movement one way or the other. If BTC does not break 8400 on this attempt it will be a double top on both short term (today) and medium term (16 April). On the short term, it will also result in bearish divergence on 1HR RSI. On the other hand, I expect a lot have shorted at the top with stops at just above 8400 and so a break above this level will likely see a strong impulse up.

評論: The target identified above was hit and quickly rebuffed but the bulls have no need to panic yet. We are finally beginning to get some impulsive behaviour. It's looking good for the bulls, but sentiment can change on a dime. However, given that BTC has broken the long term trend line my inclination is slightly bullish until the market shows me otherwise. I will go fully bullish if BTC breaks and holds the 9.5k.

It looks like we are now in the Minor 3rd wave of the Primary 3rd wave up from the bottom, potentially moving into the Minor 4th retrace before a Minor 5th push up to the resistance at 9.3k-9.5k to complete the Primary 3rd wave. This would coincided with a 2.618 extension of the Primary 1st wave. My target for the Primary 5th is circa 10.6k, which would be a 1.272 extension to end this Primary wave structure.

I have maintained my long entry at 8.1k. I plan to re-enforce this at the next significant pull back. This may not come for a while but what I would be looking for now is a retrace to 8.6k and 8.45k to enter a additional 1/3 and 2/3 of a position respectively. We could of course go straight up from here and in that case I will continue to wait for a pull back before entering a new trade. My stop is now at my entry price.

評論: I'm looking for an ABC correction here. 1:1 on A:C would need this B leg to go up to about 8850 (0.5 retrace) before it goes down again to around 8400. I'm going to move my buy in to a reversal around that level.
評論: As @hkh222 pointed out, there is an upward trendline. Adding the resistance line to the top shows they converge on the same target I have to complete primary 3 (9500). It looks like we might not have a further pull back until then, but I'll continue to hold out for a pull back to re-enforce my long.

I am looking at potential scenario(s) that *might* unfold that might allow me to consider a trade against my plan. These are my personal opinions and not advice. Please do your own research and plan trades that work for your plan.
As @hkh222 pointed out, there is an upward trendline. Adding the resistance line to the top shows they converge on the same target I have to complete primary 3 (9500). It looks like we wont have a further pull back until then but I'll continue to hold out for a pull back to re-enforce my long.

Thank you very much! I feel like your approach to TA is one of the most real ones and acts as a great example to me ;)
Keep up the good work, it's very much appreciated!
@monkia, have you considered that the log downtrendline would act as a support. Also, we have a new up trendline now.

monkia hkh222
hey @hkh222, there are several of these diagonal trend lines depending on log/linear and which points one goes through and a slight adjustment on them in Dec/Feb moves them a lot at today's prices. I think because of this, it is not very clear where these trendlines are supporting now and therefore I'm not sure they will act as support (or indeed much in resistance). Agreed on the new upward trendline, see my latest comment.
hkh222 monkia
@monkia, the down trendline that I drew worked accurately. In the 4h TF, I connected the ATH to the peak in March 5th (11698). The result in 1m TF at the time of breakout:
monkia hkh222
@hkh222, you might be right. My inclination is that the break out was caused by stops being triggered by the previous high (8575) being broken rather than the trend line.

monkia monkia
sorry, that was the wrong chart. try this one...

hkh222 monkia
@monkia, if 8575 was an important point, that could be the case. 8588 was 78.6% retracement from 9177 dip a close number to 8575.
Best break down of both possible scenarios I've seen here in Tradingview. Great work. ...and thanks for sharing.
+3 回覆
Your TA's are a bit bipolar.
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