BTC has now broken and closed above the long term , although there is an alternative that could be valid which has not been broken yet. I am therefore moving from to slightly . Why am I not completely and calling for my moon scenario just yet?
1) Whilst BTC has broken the it is yet to take out any other key resistance levels which in the short term are 8.5k and 9.1k. In particular, breaking and closing above 9.1k would be a significant signal.
2) Whilst BTC does not have to replicate 2014 price action it can be useful to compare against it. If it were following a similar path to 2014, I see three potential scenarios:
Scenario 1: Short term bear then bull to 11k
Refused at , retest 6.5-6.8k to then break through and impulse up to 11k
Scenario 2: Bull to 11k
BTC has broken through the and will continue up impulsively to 11k
Scenario 3: Bear to 3-4k
BTC has not broken through the alternative (going through the second 11k wave) and will move back down to complete the 5th and final impulse of the C wave to 3-4k.
My instincts say we are most likely following something similar to Scenario 3. However, in the short term I will trade a scenario which takes BTC to 11k and potentially on to the moon. Invalidation of this view would be if BTC moves back into and closes below the .
In the immediate short term I added a small position long with a target of 8.4k. If BTC tests the and moves up from it I will look to add to my long position. If it breaks and closes below it, I will close my position. A drop below 7.2k will move me back to my view.
It looks like we are now in the Minor 3rd wave of the Primary 3rd wave up from the bottom, potentially moving into the Minor 4th retrace before a Minor 5th push up to the resistance at 9.3k-9.5k to complete the Primary 3rd wave. This would coincided with a 2.618 extension of the Primary 1st wave. My target for the Primary 5th is circa 10.6k, which would be a 1.272 extension to end this Primary wave structure.
I have maintained my long entry at 8.1k. I plan to re-enforce this at the next significant pull back. This may not come for a while but what I would be looking for now is a retrace to 8.6k and 8.45k to enter a additional 1/3 and 2/3 of a position respectively. We could of course go straight up from here and in that case I will continue to wait for a pull back before entering a new trade. My stop is now at my entry price.