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BTC - MA100 Breakdown and Bottom

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In this analysis I wanted to underline the importance of the weekly MA100 and how it can play an important role in finding the bottom. As you can see, Bitcoin broke down the MA100 3 times and in all cases it dropped from 45% to 54%. Again Bitcoin broke down the MA100 making a 42% drop. After a period of time (50 days to 350 days) bitcoin has returned above the MA100. Every time this event has occurred Btc has hit its bottom.
Now my questions are 2:
1) Will it continue to drop to 18-20k and score a 48% drop?
2) will it stay in a range in this area for a long time and then rise again in 2023?

This is just my idea, I'd love to know what you think in the comments.

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